President Trump Gets Game-Changing 2024 News
With just over four months remaining until the election, a new survey in several key states indicates that former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden.
In Wisconsin, 47% of respondents said they would vote for Trump, while 44% favored Biden. Nine percent were undecided. Biden's handling of the Gaza conflict has eroded his support among the more extreme Democrats in the state.
Republicans are aiming to unseat Senator Tammy Baldwin with Eric Hovde, a Trump supporter. The poll shows Hovde trailing Baldwin by only two percentage points.
In Pennsylvania, 47% of respondents preferred Trump over Biden (45%), with 7% undecided. Republican Senate candidate David McCormick, who has Trump’s endorsement, is six points behind Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey.
McCormick could benefit from Trump's support on election day to secure a win for the Republicans.
The race remains highly competitive with no clear leader. Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat from Minnesota, is seeking re-election, but her opponent is trailing by more than ten points.
In Arizona, Trump is leading by four percentage points, with 47% of respondents supporting him for the November 5 election. Forty-three percent were undecided, and 10% supported Biden.
In Georgia, Trump also leads Biden by four percentage points, with a significant 14% of voters still unsure.
In Nevada, 46% of respondents backed Trump, 43% supported Biden, and 12% were undecided.
A separate poll indicates that Trump leads Biden by twice his margin of victory in Texas four years ago for the state’s 40 electoral votes.
A Marist College survey shows Republican Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred by six points in a crucial Senate race, as the GOP seeks to regain the Senate majority.
In 2020, Trump defeated Biden in Texas by about 5.5 points, the narrowest victory margin for a Republican presidential candidate in the deeply red state in almost 25 years.
“Independents, who Biden carried by 6 percentage points in 2020, now break for Trump. Trump receives 56% of Texas independents to 41% for Biden,” the Marist release notes.
Trump has significantly increased his support among Black and Latino voters, while Biden has lost ground with younger voters, according to the poll.
The survey shows Trump leading Biden with 48% support, followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a Democrat turned independent, at 15%.
Immigration was the most pressing concern for 27% of Texas voters, with the state sharing a 1,254-mile border with Mexico. Maintaining democracy (24%) and inflation (26%) were the next most important issues.
Recent polling has not been favorable for Biden. A New York Times and Siena College poll found that 48% of Americans would vote for Trump if the 2024 election were held today, with just Trump and Biden on the ticket. About 42% of the 1,226 registered voters surveyed said they would vote for Biden, while 10% were undecided or refused to vote.
Preliminary polling suggests that both candidates will likely face off in a direct race for a second term. Trump has shown better performance in swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, which voted blue in the 2020 election. However, Biden appears to retain support from young voters, who have been crucial for Democratic victories in recent years.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll revealed strong opposition to a second term for either candidate. Nearly 60% rated Biden as “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable,” with approximately 52% expressing the same for Trump.
Despite criticism from their respective parties, Trump holds strong support among Republican voters. Even after his recent conviction on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records, 68% of respondents said it did not affect their vote.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that “voters who think the cost of living is rising support Trump over Biden, 56% to 32%.”
Kimball added, “Income perception aligns with candidate preference, with those feeling their income is far below average favoring Trump 50% to 32% and those feeling it’s far above average favoring Biden 55% to 29%.”
The Emerson College poll shows Trump with 46% support, compared to Biden's 43%. Biden has seen a two-point decline since Emerson’s earlier poll this month, while Trump maintained his 46% support.
Emerson's analysis of voter work hours reveals distinct candidate preferences: “Non-workers are evenly split: 45% support Trump, 44% Biden. Those working 30 hours or less favor Biden over Trump (52% to 37%), while those in the 30-40 hour bracket are divided (45% Biden, 43% Trump). Trump gains support among those working 40-60 hours, with increasing margins as hours increase, peaking at 80% for those working over 60 hours, compared to 7% for Biden.”
Below are some more of the topline findings from the Emerson poll:
–On a ballot test including independent candidates, 44% support Trump, 40% Biden, 8% Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% Cornel West; 8% are undecided.
–Kennedy Jr. has the support of 13% of independent voters, 12% of voters under 30, and 9% of Black voters.
–In a hypothetical ballot test for the 2024 U.S. congressional elections, a generic congressional Democrat and Republican are tied at 45%, while 11% are undecided.
–Among undecided voters in the presidential election, 31% support the Democratic congressional candidate, and 19% the Republican; 50% are undecided in the generic congressional election.
–The economy is the top issue for 36% of voters, followed by immigration at 21%, threats to democracy at 10%, healthcare at 9%, abortion access at 7%, and crime at 6%.
–Compared with American families in general, 44% of voters think their family income is average, while 38% think it is below average, and 18% think their family income is above average.