Trump's Odds of Winning Hit All-Time High - Nearly 20 Points Ahead
Everyone is eager to know who will win the presidency in November, and opinions on the matter vary significantly based on whom you ask.
For instance, readers of The Western Journal might remember when Vivek Ramaswamy predicted in December that the establishment wouldn't allow either former President Donald Trump or current President Joe Biden to win. (He wasn't the only one with this view.)
The Economist gives Trump a 68 percent chance of victory. The Hill also predicts a Trump win but pegs his chances at 56 percent. Conversely, FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a slight edge at 51-to-49. Historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections, mentioned to Fox News that while he hasn't made an official prediction for 2024, "a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose to Trump."
Considering all these viewpoints, it's likely too early for anyone to confidently predict what will happen on Election Day.
That is, anyone except the oddsmakers.
According to the sports betting website Sports Handle, Trump has a 58.6 percent chance of winning back the Oval Office, while Biden trails at 39.1 percent.
Among the third-party candidates, only Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with a 3.1 percent chance, appears on the site's "US Election Winners Probability Dashboard," which lists the top 10 favorites.
Kennedy is in fourth place on the list, behind Trump and Biden, but also former first lady Michelle Obama, who stands at 4.5 percent.
The remaining candidates in the top 10 include mostly Democrats, likely favored by those betting on long shots.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom outpaces Vice President Kamala Harris, 2.8 percent to 2.2 percent, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer narrowly leads former first lady Hillary Clinton, 1 percent to 0.9 percent.
Others on the list are former Trump U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 1.4 percent and Vivek Ramaswamy at 0.7 percent.
The dashboard allows users to select start and end dates and choose from a list of potential future presidents to see how their odds of winning the White House have changed over time, according to the site's formulas.
Beyond the top 10, users can review odds for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, former National Security Advisor Gen. Michael Flynn, and Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips — whom I had almost forgotten about.
It appears the oddsmakers had too, as Phillips never scored more than 1 percent on the graph, which includes data from August 2022.
Of course, any model is only as reliable as the data it's based on, and it's hard to judge the quality here since Sports Handle only mentions that the data comes "from a diverse array of odds providers, ensuring a comprehensive and balanced perspective on the election forecasts."
Whatever this "diverse array" entails, the graph updates every Thursday, according to the site.
Remember, though, as the site cautions, betting on political outcomes is illegal in the U.S.
So, even if you favor the long shots and think 2024 might be Hillary's year (third time's a charm, right?), I wouldn't advise wagering any money on it.