Battleground State Focus Group Overwhelmingly Declares Winner of VP Debate

If a recent focus group of battleground state voters is any indication, Republican J.D. Vance was the clear winner of Tuesday’s vice presidential debate, leaving little room for doubt.

Veteran pollster Frank Luntz organized a panel of voters from key battleground states—Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia—to watch the debate between Ohio Senator J.D. Vance and Democratic candidate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

Interestingly, most of the focus group members did not initially support Vance’s Republican ticket. However, by the end of the debate, their opinions had significantly shifted.

“At the first commercial break, my #VPDebate focus group says by a 10-3 margin that JD Vance is winning,” Luntz posted on the social media platform X early in the debate. “That is a big deal since only 5 of them were leaning toward Trump-Vance when the debate began.”

By the end of the night, the results were even more decisive: “Final focus group vote tonight after the #VPDebate: 12-2 in favor of JD Vance,” Luntz reported.

Vance’s resounding success with the Luntz focus group was starkly different from other instant surveys published post-debate, which indicated a more evenly split opinion.

A Daily Beast roundup of flash polls referred to the debate as a “virtual draw,” reflecting partisan division rather than unbiased evaluations of the candidates' performances. Similarly, Politico reported a 50-50 split among surveyed viewers, but acknowledged that party loyalties likely influenced the results.

“The survey found that party identification strongly shaped the perceptions of people who watched the debate: Democrats overwhelmingly sided with Walz, while Republicans picked Vance as the winner,” Politico wrote.

Though Politico noted that independents favored Walz, it didn’t specify whether these viewers were already leaning towards Walz before the debate, a detail that Luntz highlighted. With only five focus group members leaning towards the Trump-Vance ticket initially, Vance's 12-2 win demonstrated that he managed to shift opinions in his favor, overcoming an initial disadvantage.

Commenters on Luntz’s post echoed this sentiment, comparing the dynamic to previous debates. Just as in Trump’s debate with President Kamala Harris, Vance faced not only his opponent but also challenges from the moderators.

Yet, voters saw how Vance responded in real time, and by the end of the debate, the verdict was clear: it wasn’t even close.