Bellwether Poll Shows Trump Up Big On Kamala Harris

Former President Donald Trump received more favorable news regarding his third run for the White House on Monday.

According to the New York Post, a "cookie" poll conducted by a Cincinnati bakery, which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, shows Trump holding a strong lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The latest results from Busken Bakery, shared with the Post, show Trump garnering around 54% support (with 2,953 cookies sold) compared to Harris’ 39% (2,134 cookies). A separate “independent” smiley-face cookie received 7% (397 cookies).

“The cookie poll will stay open until Election Day on Nov. 5, so these tallies reflect the outcome of early ‘voting’ by those with a sweet tooth,” noted the Post.

“We like to joke and say [customers] can stuff the ballot box,” said bakery president and CEO Dan Busken, speaking to the outlet.

Busken added that their results, collected from four retail locations spread across different parts of Cincinnati, offer a diverse sample. “It’s definitely interesting that in a state like Ohio and a city like Cincinnati, we’ve seen such accuracy in this cookie poll over the years,” he said.

In the meantime, some Democratic senators are expressing concerns that polls may be underrepresenting support for Trump, a trend seen in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

After Trump outperformed polling predictions in both elections, Democrats told The Hill that they expect the 2024 race to be tight, despite what current polling data suggests. As of Monday, Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by only 2.2 points nationally, according to the RealClearPolitics average. For context, Biden had a 7-point lead over Trump at this point in 2020, and Hillary Clinton led Trump by 3 points in 2016.

“That’s concerning,” said an anonymous Democratic senator, commenting on how Trump seems to be polling better against Harris. “There’s no question it’s troubling, but you work as hard as you can no matter what. I don’t think there’s much more we can do than we’re already doing.”

The senator also speculated that some Trump supporters might be hesitant to openly admit their support. “Most of what he promotes, many of us have taught our children to avoid on the playground,” the senator said. “There’s a reluctance to admit to supporting someone whose behavior we tell our kids is wrong.”

This remark comes amid a broader Democratic effort to portray Trump as a “threat to democracy,” labeling him with terms like “fascist,” “racist,” and “bigot.” Trump and his supporters have blamed this rhetoric for two assassination attempts against him.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) advised against placing too much trust in polls, saying, “Polling has really taken a hit since 2016. The reality is Trump will be tough to beat in Pennsylvania, and that’s just the truth.”

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), referring to his battleground state, said, “The only poll that matters is on Nov. 5.” He acknowledged the closeness of the race in key states, including Georgia, and emphasized the need for relentless campaigning. “We talk about margin of error for a reason,” he added.

Another Democratic senator, speaking anonymously, echoed skepticism about polls, stating, “I don’t think any poll right now holds much significance.”

Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, also shared concerns about surprise voters. “There may be unexpected support for both Trump and Harris this cycle,” she told The Hill. “What concerns me is that when we poll people who didn’t vote in 2020 but plan to vote now, they are disproportionately Trump voters.”