CNN Data Analyst Says Harris’ Momentum Has Stalling As Trump Gains
Harry Enten, CNN's senior data analyst, pointed out that the momentum in the upcoming presidential election is shifting, and it’s not looking favorable for Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Speaking with CNN anchor Kate Bolduan on Friday, Enten mentioned that Harris’s campaign has lost its forward momentum. While she remains more popular than her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, he cautioned that popularity alone may not secure her the presidency.
He compared the current situation to the 2016 and 2020 elections. In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a popularity edge over Trump but still lost, and in 2020, President Joe Biden, though more popular, narrowly secured his victory.
Enten highlighted that both Clinton and Biden had a more significant popularity gap with Trump than Harris currently holds in the 2024 race.
“Joe Biden was much more popular than Trump, and he barely won. Hillary Clinton was also more popular than Donald Trump and still lost. So being more popular than Trump is not enough,” Enten explained.
He also noted that, while Trump’s favorability remains negative, it has improved compared to where it stood during his 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
“If you think Trump has become less popular over time, let me correct that notion. In fact, he’s more popular at this stage of the campaign than he was in 2016 or 2020,” Enten added.
He pointed out that Trump's net favorability rating was -27 in 2016, but today it stands at -9.
“Kamala Harris may be more popular than Donald Trump, but her rise in popularity only came after she became the presumptive Democratic nominee,” Enten continued. “I believe there’s a real question in Harris’s campaign: why is Trump more popular now than he was at similar points in the 2020 and 2016 campaigns?”
He suggested that this may explain the intensifying attacks against Trump as Democrats attempt to reduce his rising popularity.
Further complicating matters for Harris is the growing distance that some swing-state Democrats are putting between themselves and her campaign. Several vulnerable Senate candidates, facing tough re-election battles, have started to either downplay their ties to Harris or express willingness to cooperate with Trump, should he win.
An analysis of key TV ads from the campaigns of Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) shows that they are casting Trump in a neutral or even positive light. This marks a noticeable shift, especially for Slotkin and Baldwin, who had previously been vocal critics of Trump and his legal troubles. Both have also softened their progressive positions on electric vehicle mandates, global trade, and the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, as polling trends increasingly favor Trump.
One of Casey’s latest ads features the headline, “Casey Supports Trump’s Trade Order,” illustrating the incumbent's vulnerability in this election cycle. Polls reflect a tight race between Trump and Harris, who has notably reversed her position on eliminating the Senate filibuster to pass the Green New Deal.
In a significant shift, Harris has adjusted her message on the campaign trail, now expressing support for domestic energy production and fracking—topics that resonate strongly with Pennsylvania voters. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s other senator, John Fetterman, has raised alarms within Democratic circles by publicly predicting that Trump will win the critical battleground state.
In Michigan, Slotkin faces a tough race against former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Having previously advocated for electric vehicle mandates, Slotkin’s current ads highlight her opposition to “electric car mandates,” likely in response to growing unrest among union workers concerned about job losses as the auto industry shifts toward automation.