CNN Data Analyst Suggests Trump Likely to Win: ‘Can’t Say We Didn’t Warn You’
CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten highlighted several factors during a Wednesday segment that indicate former President Donald Trump may well defeat Vice President Kamala Harris if she steps in as the Democratic nominee.
According to RealClearPolitics averages, Trump holds a slight advantage over Harris in six of the top seven battleground states, suggesting a close race. However, on “CNN News Central,” Enten emphasized that widespread dissatisfaction with the nation’s trajectory, low approval ratings for President Joe Biden, and a surge in Republican voter registrations are all factors that could tilt the election in Trump’s favor.
“Only 28% of Americans, voters, think the country is going in the right direction,” Enten explained, “and I want to put that into a historical perspective for you. Okay, what’s the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses? It’s 25%.”
“That 25% is remarkably close to that 28% figure. It’s nowhere near this 42% [the average when the incumbent party wins]. So, the takeaway is that very few Americans feel positive about the country’s direction at this point. It’s much more in line with when the incumbent party loses rather than when it wins,” he continued.
Enten also noted that Biden’s low approval ratings could historically signal a loss for Harris, as no presidents with net unfavorable ratings have seen successors from their party.
“In fact, I looked through history, and there isn’t a single instance where only 28% of the public believed the country was on the right track, and the incumbent party still won,” Enten remarked. “Whenever just 28% feel this way, they always lose.”
He elaborated, “Now, we don’t know if Kamala Harris will replace Joe Biden on the ticket, but remember 2008—George W. Bush’s approval was in the low 20s. Did a Republican succeed Bush? No. Or in 1968, with Lyndon B. Johnson’s negative net approval rating, did a Democrat succeed him? No,” he stated. “Or how about in 1952, with Harry S. Truman’s approval in the 20s or even the high teens?”
“Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in 1952? If memory serves, no... Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican, took over from Truman,” Enten continued. “So, for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to defy historical precedent, succeeding Joe Biden when his approval rating is very low.” Enten further mentioned Republican gains in voter registration over Democrats in key battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
“Republicans are bringing more of their supporters into the electorate, narrowing the gap between Democrats and Republicans. So if Republicans win, and Donald Trump comes out victorious, the signs were there all along,” he said. “We’d be seeing low approval for the country’s direction, low approval for Joe Biden, and Republicans increasing their registrations. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”
Enten summed up: “So, for Kamala Harris to succeed, she’d have to defy history.”
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Additionally, just a week before Election Day, the latest AtlasIntel poll—the most accurate in 2020—shows momentum shifting toward Trump in key swing states, with Trump leading in six out of seven states surveyed, many of which were essential to Biden’s 2020 win.