CNN Expert Says Harris Has ‘More Room For Movement’ From Debate Than Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris may see a more significant shift in the polls than former President Donald Trump, according to CNN's senior statistics analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday.

The first and only planned presidential debate between Harris and Trump is expected to be closely contested, based on polls. Enten, during CNN News Central, explained that many undecided voters have already formed their opinions about Trump but might be tuning in to assess Harris.

“I think most voters have made up their minds about Donald Trump,” Enten noted, adding that only 18% of undecided voters still feel they need to learn more about him. However, “a near majority of undecided voters say they want or need to learn more about Kamala Harris." Enten further highlighted that neither candidate is viewed favorably, with Trump holding an 8% favorable rating among undecided voters and Harris with 13%.

Enten emphasized that there is more potential for Harris to sway voters, stating, "The real question tonight is, can Kamala Harris seize this opportunity, seize the spotlight, and put to rest any concerns undecided voters may have?" He explained that while opinions on Trump seem largely fixed, Harris has a significant chance to gain support from undecided voters, which could prove pivotal in the November election.

According to Enten, this debate may be Harris’ "last best chance" to shift voter support in her favor.

Former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza agreed, stating on Friday that Harris “has more riding on” this debate than Trump because of her potential to improve in the polls. "Trump has a very high floor in terms of voter support and a very low ceiling... So I don’t know how his numbers move. I think she has potentially more movement there,” Cillizza said.

Enten also pointed out how close the race is, stating that Trump could win the election if he "outperforms his current polls by just a single point."

Ahead of the debate, Trump received positive news from an electoral college model released by Nate Silver on Monday. Silver’s latest forecast shows Trump with a 64.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 60.1% the previous week. Harris, on the other hand, has seen her chances drop to 35.3%, with her likelihood of winning the popular vote also decreasing from 58% to 56%.

The model now projects Trump to win 282 electoral votes, while Harris is expected to secure 256. Additionally, Republicans have made gains in key swing states, and Trump is now predicted to win all seven battleground states, including Michigan and Wisconsin, which were previously considered tight contests, according to Newsweek.