CNN’s Data Guru Says Trump Doing ‘Significantly Better’ In Swing States
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten pointed out on Monday that Republican candidate Donald Trump is performing better in swing states than he did in the 2020 election.
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 5 points in Arizona, holds a 4-point advantage in Georgia, and is ahead by 3 points in North Carolina.
Enten emphasized that these results are “significantly better” than Trump's polling numbers in 2020, suggesting a positive shift for the former president.
“You’ve got a lot of red on this screen, this is pretty good news for Donald Trump… You take it all together in these three key battleground states, two of which [President] Joe Biden carried 4 years ago, we see that Donald Trump is ahead and by an average of 4 points, significantly better than he did back in 2020 across all of these states,” Enten explained.
He also pointed out Harris’ slim 2-point leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, underscoring a clear divide between the Sun Belt and Great Lakes states. Enten attributed Trump’s stronger performance in the Sun Belt to the growing diversity of his coalition, noting that his support among non-white voters has risen from 16% in 2020 to 20% in 2024.
“If you know anything about those Sun Belt battleground states, it’s that they are more diverse than those Great Lake battleground states,” Enten said. “In the Southwest, they’re more Hispanic than they are nationwide, in the South, Southeast, North Carolina and Georgia, they are more African American than they are nationwide.”
“The real question here is, what does this mean for the electoral map because that’s what we’re all interested in and look folks, it’s just as tight as it can possibly be,” he added.
Enten displayed an electoral map showing that Harris would win 276 to 262 if polling in the Great Lakes states remains accurate. However, given Trump’s history of outperforming polls in swing states during both 2016 and 2020, many expect him to do better in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan than current data suggests.
WATCH:
Former President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign has drawn attention for multiple reasons — unfortunately, including two assassination attempts against him — but politically, it has stood out due to his openness to figures with differing viewpoints.
Trump has successfully attracted three prominent former Democrats: billionaire Elon Musk, former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who launched an Independent presidential bid after his party sidelined him in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris as President Biden’s successor.
On Sunday, during an episode of Sharyl Attkisson’s syndicated show “Full Measure,” the host asked Trump if he had any “specific positions” in mind for these former Democrats should he return to the White House after the November election.
“Three people, by the way, who were Democrats or, in the case of Musk, I don’t know, at least supported Democrats. What specific positions do you see them holding?” she inquired.
Trump responded that he hadn’t made any formal commitments to them yet but praised RFK Jr. for his dedication to improving public health.
“I mean, he’s been fighting for this for years,” Trump remarked. “He looks at other countries where they don’t use chemicals, or they use much less than we use. And the people are healthier than they are in the United States, which is not that healthy a country.”
Regarding Tulsi Gabbard, Trump commented, “Tulsi has always been good from the standpoint of common sense. She’s like a common sense person. I’ve watched her for a long time on shows. I’ve known her a little bit. And it was a great honor when we got her. She’s, you’re right. She was a Democrat and popular too, in Hawaii. And she will be, she will be terrific.”
Attkisson then asked Trump about a potential role for Musk in a future administration.
“Well, Elon is Elon. I mean, Elon is, he’s endorsed me very powerfully,” Trump said. “He feels this is the most important election we’ve ever had. And as you know, he probably has a couple of other things to do, but — ”
The host interrupted to ask whether Musk could help eliminate “government waste.”
“He’s a big cost cutter,” Trump replied. “He is always been very good at it and I’m good at it.”