CNN’s Enten: GOP Made Big Gains In Party Registration, Identification Since 2020

In the lead-up to the 2024 election, CNN's Harry Enten analyzed party registration data both nationwide and in key battleground states, predicting that Republicans are in a strong position to win based on historical trends.

“In November 2020, Democrats held 47% of registered voters, compared to Republicans at 39%—an eight-point advantage. But today, although more voters in Pennsylvania are still registered as Democrats, the gap has narrowed to just 44% to 40%. Republicans have cut that Democratic lead in half in a very short period,” Enten explained.

He continued, “The GOP currently leads by one point in party identification. Historically, when Republicans lose, Democrats lead by an average of eight points. When Republicans win, Democrats’ advantage is usually just three points. Right now, Republicans are outperforming even their usual winning numbers.”

When CNN’s Manu Raju asked how voters’ leanings compare to 2020, Enten emphasized how much ground Republicans have gained. “The fresh voter registration numbers show a trend that Republicans are thrilled about,” he said. “In Pennsylvania, Democrats had an eight-point advantage in November 2020, but now, that gap is just four points. Republicans have made significant strides by registering new voters and even attracting former Democrats.”

Enten noted, “Where are they picking up ground? It’s clear from the data. In Pennsylvania counties where non-college-educated white voters make up less than 50% of the population, Republicans gained only a point. But in areas where more than 50% are non-college whites, Republicans gained an average of six points.”

“These gains are happening in the places you’d expect—regions dominated by non-college white voters, such as coal country in northeastern Pennsylvania and areas southwest of Pittsburgh. The trend of Republicans performing well among non-college-educated white voters is clearly reflected in these registration numbers,” Enten added.

Raju then asked whether this trend is visible in other battleground states and if it's altering the overall Democratic advantage.

Enten responded, “If this trend were limited to Pennsylvania, it wouldn’t be as significant. But we’re seeing the same pattern across other battleground states with party registration. While not every state requires voters to register with a party—Wisconsin, Georgia, and Michigan don’t—those that do, like Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, are showing fewer registered Democrats. This trend mirrors what we’re seeing in Pennsylvania: more voters are registering as Republicans.”

He elaborated, “Looking at party identification across the country, not just registration, we see a similar story. In October/November 2016, Democrats had a three-point party ID advantage, and four years ago, they had a six-point lead. But today, Republicans hold a one-point advantage. This shift aligns closely with the party registration trends in battleground states, especially in Pennsylvania.”

Enten concluded by saying, “The GOP currently leads by one point in party identification. Historically, when Republicans lose, Democrats lead by an average of eight points. When Republicans win, Democrats’ advantage is usually just three points. Right now, Republicans are outperforming even their usual winning numbers. If there’s one key takeaway for Republicans, it’s that these party ID and registration numbers point to a very favorable outlook for them and Donald Trump.”

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