Early Vote Turnout Raises Alarms for Harris Campaign, Causing ‘Panic’ Among Democrats, Says Obama’s Former Campaign Chief
Jim Messina, who managed Obama’s 2012 campaign, stated that early voting numbers are proving “scary” for the Kamala Harris campaign, with Republicans making considerable gains in key states compared to 2020.
In a conversation on MSNBC’s Inside with Jen Psaki, Messina expressed concern, noting, “the early vote numbers are a little scary” when discussing Harris campaign challenges ahead of the election.
“Republicans didn’t do what they did last time,” Messina observed. “Last time, Trump told them not to early vote, so they didn’t. Now, Republicans have a clear advantage in early voting. The early vote results are going to look a bit different from 2020, and that’s scary.”
Messina emphasized that Democrats are optimistic about strong turnout from women and young voters, key demographics that the Harris campaign is relying on.
“Women voters make up 55% of early voters, and in the past 10 days, young voters in battleground states have shown up in historic numbers for early voting,” he shared.
Still, Messina added that these early vote numbers have left “lots of my friends calling me panicking” due to the differences from 2020.
Traditionally, Republicans have been more supportive of early voting, but both parties are now actively encouraging early ballots, resulting in a major impact on turnout.
In the key swing state of Nevada, recent data shows Republicans have reached record early voting numbers, outperforming Democrats by roughly 5%. As of Friday, the state’s records report that 393,811 votes were cast by Republicans, 344,539 by Democrats, and 287,762 by other parties.
With Republicans leading by approximately 49,000 votes at week’s end, the shift contrasts starkly with 2020, when Democrats held a 43,000-vote advantage at the close of early voting.
Political experts and some Democratic leaders in Nevada have raised concerns about the GOP’s surge in early voting.
“Republicans are kicking our ass at early voting,” Nevada Democratic Congresswoman Dina Titus remarked at a Harris rally in North Las Vegas. “We cannot let that happen.”
In Georgia, Republicans remain confident that Trump will secure the state due to the robust early vote numbers. Back in 2020, Trump narrowly lost Georgia by less than 1%, and Republicans have since invested significant resources in trying to win it back.
From October 15 to November 1, Georgia’s early voting period saw over half of registered voters—around 4 million people—cast their ballots in person or by mail.
According to GA Votes, over 700,000 people who participated in early voting in 2024 didn’t vote in 2020. In addition, the highest turnout has come from three rural counties that Trump carried in the last election.
“Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted early in 2020 or 2022 but haven’t voted yet, and many haven’t even requested a mail ballot,” a source from the Trump campaign told the New York Post. This data pertains to key states like Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Data from early voting in Arizona suggests that Republicans lead by 8 points in returned mail ballots and party registration. Compared to 2020, Republicans are now ahead by 9 points, according to reports.
In Nevada, Republicans hold a narrow one-point lead in party registration and mail ballot returns, marking a 9-point increase compared to 2020.
“This seems to be the first time Republicans have ever led in early voting in North Carolina,” the Post highlighted.
Although Democrats currently hold the edge in early votes in Pennsylvania, Republicans are reportedly in a much stronger position than they were in 2020, according to the Post.