Early Voting Surge in Historically Democratic State Stuns Reporter: ‘Never Happened’

In a Sun Belt state that hasn't voted Republican since 2004, a large influx of early GOP voters could sway the outcome.

According to the Nevada Independent, the number of Republican Nevadans who have already cast their votes early or by mail has surpassed that of Democratic Nevadans. This occurrence is rare since Democrats generally prefer to vote early rather than on Election Day.

Veteran journalist Jon Ralston observed that while more Democratic ballots came in overnight from populous Clark County, it was insufficient to reduce the GOP’s early voting lead, where Republicans hold a 5.3% advantage with 40,000 more ballots than Democrats. Statewide, the GOP maintains a 5.7% lead, translating into 40,000 more votes than the Democrats.

“This has never happened, not even close, in The Reid Machine Era,” Ralston commented, referencing the late Harry Reid, Nevada’s influential former Senate leader.

In Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, Republicans are highly motivated to secure a victory for Trump in a state that hasn't seen a Republican win since 2004. Here, Republicans lead by nearly 9% in voter turnout, while the “usually reliable Clark Dem firewall has all but evaporated,” according to Ralston. Unlike 2020 or 2022, this shift is unprecedented, emphasizing Republicans' strong desire to see Trump back in office. “This is a unicorn year. We have never seen this,” he added.

Nevada’s population, largely comprised of temporary service industry workers, has grown weary of backing Democrats in each presidential race. Earlier this month, Politico reported that Trump had established a 5-point lead over Harris.

This development comes as a surprise in a state where Trump lost by almost 2.5% four years ago and was previously considered out of reach.

Now, Trump has not only opened but expanded his lead in Nevada and other key battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia—states that could determine the next president.

This comes as the Nevada Supreme Court recently ruled against a Republican challenge, upholding the policy that mail-in ballots received up to three days after Election Day can still be counted.

The Hill reported that the state’s highest court determined that Nevada law requires the counting of mail-in ballots even when the postmark “cannot be determined,” applying both to ballots without a postmark and those with unclear markings.

The court upheld a lower court’s ruling allowing ballots received up to three days after November 5 to be counted, a setback for Republicans, who argued that the rule should only apply to ballots with illegible postmarks.

“If a voter properly and timely casts their vote by mailing their ballot before or on the day of the election, and through a post office omission the ballot is not postmarked, it would go against public policy to discount that properly cast vote,” stated Nevada’s majority opinion, as quoted by The Hill.

“Indeed, there is no principled distinction between mail ballots where the postmark is ‘illegible’ or ‘smudged’ and those with no postmark—in each instance, the date the mail ballot was received by the post office cannot be determined,” the court decision elaborated.

The high court confirmed that the GOP lacked standing, stating that the plaintiffs did not provide enough evidence to show mail ballots posed a risk of voter fraud or that current security protocols were insufficient.

The court also dismissed claims that mail ballots inherently favor Democrats.

In response, the Republican National Committee stated to The Hill that the decision might affect election integrity.

“Requiring ballots to be postmarked on or before election day is a critical election integrity safeguard that ensures ballots mailed after election day are not counted,” RNC Spokesperson Claire Zunk said. “It is also a requirement of Nevada law. By allowing Nevada officials to ignore the law’s postmark requirement, the state’s highest court has undermined the integrity of Nevada’s elections.”

Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver’s latest projections suggest Trump could secure victories in all key swing states for the 2024 election. Silver’s analysis shows Trump has a 24.4% chance of sweeping the seven swing states in November.

This outcome remains the most likely, with the forecast indicating Harris has a 15.6% chance of winning across all battleground states.

Silver’s predictions indicate Harris would clinch the race if she were to carry all swing states except Arizona and Georgia, where Trump currently leads.

Additionally, FiveThirtyEight has shifted its forecast to favor Trump, giving him a 51% chance of winning, compared to Harris's 49%.

Simultaneously, RealClearPolitics projects Trump winning all four major swing states, providing him with 312 Electoral College votes compared to Harris’s 227.