Election Expert Nate Silver Makes Key Prediction for Presidential Race

Prominent election analyst Nate Silver has labeled the presidential race a "pure toss-up," but noted that former President Donald Trump would narrowly edge out Vice President Kamala Harris if it came down to the wire.

Based on Silver’s model, Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College, winning about 51.5% of the time compared to Harris’s 48.1%, as reported in a Sunday post on Substack, per the New York Post.

Silver tweeted, “[New York Times] swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls are good for Trump but not great. It’s a pure toss-up.”

In the latest Times/Siena College poll, no clear frontrunner emerges across the seven key battleground states, with Election Day only two days away. Trump currently leads in Arizona, while Harris holds slight advantages in states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Michigan and Pennsylvania remain deadlocked.

Morning Consult’s polling results similarly indicate razor-thin Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Arizona and Pennsylvania are tied. Silver’s averages reveal Trump with a slight lead in pivotal states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, with Harris holding slim advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin.

While polling depicts a tight race, a recent analysis using more "old school" methods suggests Trump may hold a stronger lead than polls alone would indicate.

Trump holds a marginal 0.3% lead over Harris in the RealClearPolitics national poll average and an average 0.9% lead across battleground states, writes Elizabeth Stauffer in the Washington Examiner. "Both results are well within the margins of error," she notes, "making it fair to describe this presidential race as neck and neck. Right?”

"If polls are the only indicator you’re looking at, that might be a fair statement. However, there are other ways to gauge where the candidates stand with the electorate,” she explained.

Fox News’ political analyst Brit Hume reflected on how in earlier eras, reporters evaluated candidates without relying as heavily on polls. Instead, they assessed other factors:

“You’d rely on how the candidate seemed,” he said. “You relied on their events, how the events seemed to go, how well-organized they seemed to be. You looked at the response of the audience at these events. … You watched for other signs to pick up a sense of the race.”

"If I were covering it the same way we used to cover it," Hume continued, "I would look at this and say, Trump appears to be in the ascendancy. His campaign seems to have momentum. His events seem to be more exciting."

The vice president, however, “seems to be struggling,” Hume observed. "She struggles to answer questions. She’s not doing well in interviews."

He noted that while modern polls suggest a neck-and-neck race, a more traditional evaluation might suggest otherwise: “Judged the old-fashioned way, it wouldn’t appear to be.”

Hume’s perspective highlights Trump’s growing momentum, says Stauffer, arriving at a crucial point in the race.

According to her, Trump is enjoying a series of public relations successes. His unexpected stint as a fry cook at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s, his lengthy interview with Joe Rogan that captivated millions, and his performance at Madison Square Garden have all boosted his visibility. He even generated media buzz with a stunt involving a garbage truck aimed at Presidents Biden and Harris.

Stauffer concluded by noting Trump’s resonant statement, “You can’t lead America if you don’t love Americans.”

Meanwhile, Harris has faced ongoing challenges in her campaign.