Final Polls Appear Favorable for Trump if Past Trends Continue

If historical trends are any indicator, the latest polls before Tuesday’s election look promising for Republican Donald Trump.

As of Monday, the national polling average by Real Clear Politics shows Trump level with Democrat Kamala Harris, both at 48.5 percent.

In the crucial battleground states, Trump holds a slight edge of 0.7 percent in the RCP average, with 48.5 percent compared to Harris’s 47.8 percent.

Analyzing these figures, Trump is currently leading in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, though he trails by 0.4 percent in Wisconsin and by 1.2 percent in Michigan.

If these polling results hold, Trump would secure a win over Harris with an electoral count of 287 to 251, as per the RCP interactive map.

However, keep in mind that polls underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020.

In 2016, the RCP national average showed Democrat Hillary Clinton leading by 3.2 percent, yet she only won the popular vote by 2.1 percent.

In Michigan, Clinton was shown with a 3.4 percent lead, but Trump ended up winning by 0.3 percent. In Wisconsin, Clinton led by 6.5 percent but lost to Trump by 0.7 percent.

Turning to 2020, Democrat Joe Biden led Trump by 7.2 percent nationally but won by only 4.5 percent.

In Wisconsin, Biden’s lead was 6.7 percent, yet he carried the state by less than one percent. In Michigan, Biden led by 5.1 percent but won by a margin of 2.8 percent.

If these polling trends persist, Trump seems well-positioned to achieve a sweep in key swing states, given Harris’s narrow 0.4 percent lead in Wisconsin and 1.4 percent in Michigan.

The Decision HQ/The Hill polling average, released on Sunday, also indicates Trump leads in all seven swing states.

However, a Sunday poll from the New York Times/Siena College showed Harris leading in Nevada (49 to 46 percent), North Carolina (48 to 46), Wisconsin (49 to 47), and Georgia (48 to 47), with ties in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump only leads in Arizona, with a 49 to 45 margin.

The Times offered a note of caution: “Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.”

Republican National Committee political director James Blair addressed the Times poll on Sunday on Fox News, noting, “In all of the battleground states,…they’ve set the electorate to the left of 2020, which doesn’t comport with what we know, which is that all of these electorates have moved to the right” due to increased Republican registrations.

“They are putting some cover out there because they are going to under represent President Trump’s support,” Blair added.

On Monday, Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, “Our internal polls have President Trump leading in every key battleground state. We are cautiously optimistic about a big victory tomorrow night as long as everyone turns out to vote.”

Leavitt highlighted strong early voting figures for Republicans, arguing this positions Trump well heading into Election Day.

So overall, encouraging news for Trump just a day before the election.