Harris Shedding Key Voters In Battleground Pennsylvania
Recent polling from Pennsylvania shows a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but the vice president appears to be losing voters from a key demographic—older Americans. A poll conducted by a bipartisan team for AARP, shared with POLITICO, reveals Harris leading Trump 49% to 47%, with 2% supporting other candidates and 3% undecided. The survey, which ran from September 17 to 24, is AARP's first since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
Harris has seen improvements compared to Biden's earlier polling numbers. In an April survey, Biden trailed Trump by 5 points overall, whereas Harris now holds a slim lead.
Harris is also outperforming Biden in key voter groups such as Democrats, women, suburban voters, and even those without college degrees. Among younger voters aged 18 to 49, she is leading by 14 points, a sharp increase from Biden’s 1-point deficit. Additionally, she has made gains among independents, where she now holds a 9-point advantage.
However, Harris struggles with older voters, particularly those 65 and older, where she trails Trump by 7 points. This demographic is significant, as it makes up a large share of the electorate.
Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose firm Fabrizio Ward helped conduct the survey, pointed out that older voters’ concerns about the economy, especially inflation, are driving their support for Trump. Among voters aged 50 and up who prioritize these issues, Trump leads Harris by a staggering 54 points.
Jeffrey Liszt, a Democratic pollster whose firm Impact Research also worked on the AARP poll, said Trump’s higher retrospective job approval ratings are another challenge for Harris.
“A big piece of that is the economy,” Liszt noted, pointing to Trump’s branding as a successful businessman, bolstered by his time on The Apprentice. While 50% of likely voters approve of Trump’s job as president, only 45% approve of Harris’s performance as vice president. Despite this, Harris’s personal favorability rating is slightly better than Trump’s, with her being only 3 points underwater compared to Trump’s 7 points.
Trump’s path to victory, according to Ward, could lie in expanding his lead among older voters, especially older women. Meanwhile, Liszt highlighted Harris's consolidation of younger voters and Black voters, particularly those who had been skeptical of Biden.
On the debate front, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, received poor reviews following his performance against Ohio Sen. JD Vance. CNN anchors Abby Phillips, Dana Bash, and Jake Tapper all criticized Walz’s debate showing, with Tapper remarking that Vance appeared "much more experienced" in debating.
The general consensus was that Walz either lacked sufficient preparation or was over-prepared, leading to a failure to respond effectively to Vance's attacks.
As the race tightens, the polling data from Pennsylvania and Walz’s debate performance will likely play crucial roles in shaping the remaining weeks of the campaign.