Historian Who Predicted Most Elections Since 1984 Analyzes Trump-Harris

In a possible 2024 showdown with former President Donald Trump, the “Keys to the White House” seem to be favoring Vice President Kamala Harris; however, a final prediction for the 2024 election has not been made yet.

Allan Lichtman, a renowned election forecaster with a near-perfect track record since 1984, created a method to predict presidential elections, as reported by the New York Post.

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of thirteen true-or-false questions, which he believes can clearly indicate the winner on Election Day.

Each question is related to one of the two competing candidates; if the answer is “true,” the candidate earns a “key,” and if the answer is “false,” the opponent gains the point. A candidate from one party is predicted to win if they secure six or more keys.

At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats secured one “key” due to President Biden’s incumbency, but significant changes have occurred since then.

The 13 “keys” include: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.

Based on Lichtman’s analysis, Democrats currently hold six of the thirteen keys, with Harris as the leading candidate.

Republicans have three keys in their favor: winning the majority in the House in the 2022 midterm elections, the incumbent not seeking reelection, and the incumbent’s lack of charisma.

Although a formal prediction for the 2024 race hasn’t been issued, Lichtman told News Nation that “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”

There are still four keys that remain undecided.

One of the undecided factors is the third-party element, which Lichtman says is significant due to the candidacy of independent contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The issues of “no social unrest,” “foreign military failure,” and “foreign military success” are also unresolved.

According to the election forecaster’s criteria, Democrats would be considered the “losers” if they lost three more keys.

Lichtman correctly predicted Biden’s victory in 2020 and Trump’s in 2016.

In a recent national poll by Rasmussen Reports, Trump leads Harris by three percentage points.

“Trump came out ahead 49% to 46%. This is a slight improvement for Harris, who was trailing Trump 45% to 49% in Rasmussen’s poll last week. When third-party candidates were included, Trump led again with 47%, Harris at 45%, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 4%, and others at 1% or less,” according to the New York Post.

“Rasmussen’s results are an outlier compared to recent national polling. The conservative-leaning firm often diverges from other top pollsters. In 2016, it was one of the closest to the final result. Harris currently has an average lead of two points over Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregation of a national five-way race. In a two-way race, her lead narrows to 1.5 percentage points,” the Post added.

The polling for battleground states has also become more competitive, with various firms reporting different outcomes in key races.

Harris still trails Trump, though.

RealClearPolitics’ battleground state estimate predicts Trump will win 287 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 251, taking all major swing states except Wisconsin.

Recently, polling has been favorable for Trump.

Trump seems to have regained his lead after an initial surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris following President Joe Biden’s announcement to end his reelection campaign in July.

Harris has enjoyed a month of positive media coverage — largely from outlets with left-leaning editorial pages — while Trump’s coverage has been predominantly negative.

According to Axios, earlier polling from the Cook Political Report showed Harris leading Trump in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Likewise, a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week found Harris with a narrow lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

However, a recent survey by Navigator Research, published Tuesday, shows the race is essentially tied in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Individually, Trump leads Harris by one percentage point in Arizona (46% to 45%) and by two points in Pennsylvania (46% to 44%), while the other three states are tied.

The Navigator survey aligns with the RealClearPolitics Polling average of battleground states, which also includes Nevada and Georgia.