Kamala Harris Now Struggling in a State Biden Won Easily, Indicating Trump Could Humiliate Her on Election Day

When Vice President Kamala Harris assumed the role of the Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s mid-July announcement to step down from leading the ticket in 2024, many political analysts made certain early predictions.

One of those predictions was that the Democratic ticket would see a boost in national polls, with battleground states that had leaned toward Republicans reverting to their safe blue status. Virginia was one of these states, where various polls showed former President Donald Trump running close to Biden, despite Biden’s comfortable win there in 2020.

While Democrats have regained ground nationally, Virginia seems to present more challenges, as a recent poll suggests.

A survey of 756 likely voters in Virginia, conducted by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, revealed that Harris holds only a two-point lead in a two-way race and just a one-point advantage when more candidates are included. Both figures fall within the margin of error of 3.7 percent.

The media release stated, “Harris has the support of 47 percent of 756 Virginia likely voters, as compared to 46 percent favoring Trump in the survey, which includes 1,000 adult respondents and was conducted for UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies by Research America Inc. Sept. 3-9.”

“Several third-party and independent candidates received a total of four percent support in the poll, while the remaining likely voters said they were undecided.”

In a hypothetical matchup between only the two major party candidates, the numbers remained tight: “48 percent favored Harris and 46 preferred Trump,” according to the poll.

“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” Stephen J. Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies, said in the release. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”

Virginia has not really been seen as a swing state since George W. Bush's era.

Barack Obama secured the state by more than 6 points in 2008 and about 4 points in 2012; Hillary Clinton won it by over 5 points in 2016, and Biden captured it by more than 10 in 2020.

These latest numbers aren’t much better than back in May, when a Roanoke College poll found Trump and Biden tied at 42 percent.

It's worth mentioning that the earlier poll came before Biden’s poor performance in the June 27 debate and this latest poll occurred prior to the Sept. 10 debate, where Trump faced off against the moderators and Harris.

Nonetheless, the poll reflects the emerging reality that Harris’ polling numbers more closely resemble Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 rather than Joe Biden’s in 2020. While they’re decent, considering the positive media attention Harris has received and the continuous criticism of Trump, her numbers should be stronger, especially in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

If we hypothesize — and this is quite a stretch — that Trump manages to win Virginia, Harris would then need victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and one of the three Sun Belt states trending toward Trump: Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina, to secure a win.

However, if Trump does win Virginia, it could indicate broader dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration, potentially leading to a larger sweep of those critical states, along with Pennsylvania, in Trump’s favor.

What this scenario is more likely to suggest is that both campaigns may need to focus additional resources on Virginia, a state that was previously considered safe for the Democrats. The numbers in Pennsylvania remain tight, and if Harris loses there, the hypothetical scenario above remains relevant. That would require even more resources to prevent Virginia from becoming a close race, diverting efforts away from more critical battleground states like Pennsylvania or the Sun Belt.

Regardless of the specifics, this polling is a troubling sign for the Democratic ticket. It serves as a reminder that no amount of "joy" and "vibes" can erase the American public's memory of what the Biden-Harris administration has done for the country.