New Poll Gives Kari Lake Edge In Competitive Ariz. Senate Race
Former Arizona GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake received encouraging news on Wednesday with the release of a new poll showing her in the lead for the first time against her Democratic opponent, Rep. Reuben Gallego.
AtlasIntel’s October 29 survey initially showed Lake and Gallego neck and neck. However, their updated data from October 30-31 now places Lake ahead by a slight margin, capturing 48.6 percent of the vote to Gallego’s 47.9 percent.
The poll also measured third-party support at 1.4 percent, with another 1.5 percent of voters still undecided.
Lake, who narrowly lost the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial race to Katie Hobbs, still faces a challenging road ahead.
Gallego has consistently led in the RealClearPolitics polling average throughout much of the campaign. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted from October 25 to October 29 had Gallego up by four points, while a CNN poll from October 21 to 26 showed him ahead by eight. Data Orbital’s October 26-28 survey, however, suggested a much closer race, with Lake and Gallego nearly tied.
As of October 31, Gallego maintains a 3.9-point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
AtlasIntel’s polling also showed positive results for former President Trump in Arizona, with the October 30-31 survey marking his largest lead among battleground states. Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 4.2 points, a significant edge in Arizona. The data further shows Trump winning support from independents in the state, with minimal Republican defections and comparable numbers of Democratic voters opting out of supporting Harris.
Lake’s Senate campaign took a twist last month due to a court ruling that unveiled sealed divorce records from her opponent’s past.
In 2016, Gallego, who filed for divorce from then-wife Kate Gallego, lost a lengthy legal battle to keep these records private. The Washington Free Beacon eventually prevailed after a 10-month court fight, with the Arizona Supreme Court ultimately denying Gallego’s last appeal to keep the documents sealed.
According to the Washington Free Beacon, Gallego’s initial court filings stated that Kate Gallego “had not yet been served” with divorce papers and that “her attorney entered an appearance” hadn’t yet occurred, despite her being “likely to give birth any day.” The divorce petition described the marriage as “irretrievably broken” and without a “reasonable prospect of reconciliation.”
Kate Gallego, then a Phoenix city councilwoman, was reportedly taken by surprise when served the divorce papers late in her pregnancy. In a February 2017 response, she countered her husband’s claims, stating she lacked information to agree that the marriage couldn’t be salvaged.
Court documents also reveal that Rep. Gallego sought to have his wife pay court costs under an Arizona law permitting such fees. In her response, Kate Gallego requested that her husband contribute to her legal fees instead.
Initially, Ruben Gallego requested the court to rule out long-term spousal support for his wife, arguing that neither party required financial assistance. Kate Gallego initially sought spousal maintenance but later dropped the claim, agreeing they were both financially independent.
The couple’s divorce was finalized in April 2017.