New Polling Indicates Harris ‘Honeymoon’ May Be Over
A New York Times/Siena College poll recently showed former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by one point nationwide, raising questions about whether her post-Biden boost has reached its peak.
Nate Kohn, the NY Times chief political analyst, expressed surprise at the result. "It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls," he wrote in a Sunday column discussing the findings.
Kohn further speculated that Harris' dip in support might reflect the end of an ideal news cycle. "After all, she was benefiting from an uninterrupted month of glowing coverage following President Biden’s departure from the race in July through the Democratic convention in August. It’s possible she was riding a political sugar high... it would make sense if she came off those highs in the two uneventful weeks since the convention."
Kohn also noted that the Times/Siena poll might be the first to detect a shift back toward Trump because of a lack of recent high-quality surveys. "There have been a few online polls this week, but no traditional, high-quality surveys with interviews conducted after August 28."
Kohn pointed out that Trump has maintained strong support: "46 percent of likely voters say they have a favorable view of the former president. That’s down slightly from our last national poll, but still higher than his popularity in 2016 or 2020." He added that Trump also leads Harris by five points on key issues identified by voters.
Meanwhile, a SuperPAC heavily funded by Tesla, Starlink, and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is preparing a series of digital ads supporting Trump, aimed at swing-state voters. One popular YouTube ad warns, "If you sit this election out, Kamala and the crazies will win... You will be stuck with higher costs and more illegals invading our country," portraying Trump as an "American Badass."
On Meta’s Facebook, the America PAC ad states, "We must STOP Kamala while we can," adding that Arizona families are tired of "radical liberals." Another ad on X with a voice-over in a Russian accent says, "Meet Comrade Kamala. Ready to bring the Soviet Union to Michigan."
Musk, who endorsed Trump on July 13 after a failed assassination attempt on Trump’s life in Pennsylvania, has pledged millions to support Trump’s campaign and has hosted campaign events on X, becoming one of Trump's strongest backers this election cycle.