New Polling Should Have Harris Campaign Worried
According to a recent poll, former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in five out of seven critical swing states that will be key in deciding the next presidential election.
A survey conducted by AtlasIntel, targeting likely voters in battleground states, shows Trump ahead in Pennsylvania (51% to 48.1%) and Michigan (50.6% to 47.2%).
In the states that remain undecided, Trump holds a "narrow" advantage in Arizona (49.8% to 48.6%), Georgia (49.6% to 49%), and Wisconsin (49.7% to 48.2%). Harris, on the other hand, is leading in Nevada (50.5% to 47.7%) and North Carolina (50.5% to 48.1%).
AtlasIntel was recognized by 538 voters as one of the most reliable polling firms during the 2020 presidential race. Based on their current polling, if Trump were to secure the five battleground states where he currently leads, he would have 290 Electoral College votes, compared to Harris’s 248, thus clinching the 2024 election.
The surveys were conducted between September 20 and 25, with a margin of error between two to three percentage points.
A Trump campaign official, reacting to the poll, told Newsweek, "Americans are sick and tired of Kamala Harris and her failed policies that have led to skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime that terrorizes communities. The American people are wise enough to spot a fraud when they see one, and she is weak, incompetent, and dangerously liberal."
The AtlasIntel poll also shows that Trump would secure two of Harris’s most important "blue wall" battleground states.
For Harris to win the election, she would need to secure Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which would give her the necessary 270 Electoral College votes to win. Additionally, she would need to capture the Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, where she is currently favored based on polls.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District has been a key battleground in previous elections. Joe Biden was able to flip the district in 2020, which Trump had won in 2016. Notably, Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that allocate Electoral College votes proportionally, rather than using a winner-take-all system.
Even if Trump wins only North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia in November, he could still secure enough Electoral College votes to claim victory.
Moreover, if Trump defeats Harris in all four Sun Belt swing states—Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada—he would be in a strong position to win. Even flipping just one of Wisconsin or Michigan could be enough to give him the edge.
Polling data from other reputable sources, such as Insider Advantage and the Trafalgar Group, further suggests that Trump is on track for a significant victory over Harris in the 2024 election. According to recent polling, Trump holds a commanding lead in several crucial battleground states, signaling a strong chance of success come November.
The most recent electoral map projects that Trump will win 296 electoral votes, while Harris will secure 226. Trump is gaining momentum in key swing states like Pennsylvania (+2.2), Michigan (+2.2), and Wisconsin (+1.1), traditionally Democratic-leaning in tight elections, but now showing movement toward the former president.
While Trump has a narrow lead in Arizona and North Carolina, the races in Nevada and Georgia remain close.
According to Trafalgar’s research, Georgia is a battleground state where both parties are in a tight contest.
In addition, Senate forecasts indicate a 73% chance of Republicans reclaiming control of the Senate, which would significantly shift the political landscape in Washington.