New Polls Show Trump Gaining On Harris In Key Swing States

Since being named the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a surge in popularity, dubbed by her supporters as "Kamalamentum." However, the momentum appears to be fading as former President Donald Trump gains ground, particularly in key battleground states.

Early polls, such as one from The New York Times and Siena College, showed the two tied at 47 points nationally, while the RealClearPolitics average of polls gave Harris a slight lead of 1.9%, a figure that has remained stable since the start of the month. In Pennsylvania, a critical swing state, one poll showed Harris ahead by four percentage points, at 50% to Trump's 46%. However, the RealClearPolitics average for Pennsylvania shows a much tighter race, with Harris leading Trump by just one point (48% to 47%).

In other battleground states, the Hill/Emerson College poll delivered more favorable news for Trump. The former president was shown to lead in Georgia (50% to 47%), Arizona and Wisconsin (both 49% to 48%), while Nevada was in a tie at 48%. Meanwhile, Harris maintained slight leads in North Carolina (49% to 48%) and Michigan (49% to 47%).

Even if Harris were to win Nevada in this scenario, Trump could still secure the necessary electoral votes to claim victory in November. The RealClearPolitics electoral map currently assigns Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada to Harris, while North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona go to Trump. This would result in 276 electoral votes for Harris and 262 for Trump, which would hand Harris the presidency.

Despite these numbers, some analysts argue that Trump is performing better at this stage than in his previous White House bids. In an interview with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham, pollster Matt Towery noted that Trump is running ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020.

Towery also pushed back on the narrative that Harris is steamrolling Trump, pointing out that the battleground states are much more closely contested than some reports suggest. “I don’t think there’s any state where anyone has a four or five-point lead right now that’s a battleground state,” Towery said, adding that while polling data can vary, the race remains extremely tight.

As the 2024 election looms, it appears that Harris’ early polling bump may not be enough to sustain the so-called "Kamalamentum," especially as Trump gains strength in key states.