Poll: Trump Surges 14-Pts With Independents, Latinos Shift 19-Pts In Ex-Prez’s Favor

Former President Donald Trump appears to have made significant strides against Vice President Kamala Harris, gaining around 14 points among independents and 19 points among Latino voters.

According to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, Trump, 78, has pulled ahead of Harris, 59, by three points among independents in a multi-candidate race, with 49% to her 46%. This marks a substantial shift since August when Trump was trailing Harris by 11 points, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 37%.

In the interim between the August and September polls, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who had previously garnered 12% of the vote, withdrew from the race and threw his support behind Trump. Additionally, Harris’s initial “honeymoon” period following her unexpected rise to the nomination seems to be tapering off.

Back in August, Trump held a 15-point lead over Harris among Latino voters, with 54% to her 39%. As of now, his lead has shrunk to just four points, with Trump at 51% and Harris at 47%.

“When Trump and Harris square off in Philadelphia, the stakes are sky-high because the contest is so close,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.

“There are only single digits separating the candidates on most of the issues that matter to voters. However, those who prioritize honesty are overwhelmingly siding with Harris, while voters seeking strong leadership are aligning with Trump. Will this dynamic hold after Wednesday morning?” he added.

Nearly 70% of Americans indicated they would watch the debate, according to the poll, and 30% of registered voters believe it could influence their decision. Still, 69% of respondents said it is unlikely to be a game-changer.

Trump also saw encouraging news in national polling, where he closed the gap with Harris by two points, with the vice president maintaining a narrow lead.

In the most recent survey of registered voters in a multi-candidate race, Harris edged Trump 49% to 48%. Back in August, she led 48% to 45% in a similar scenario.

Interestingly, Trump led President Biden in a July poll by 43% to 42% among registered voters.

In the September survey, Harris expanded her lead over Trump among voters who were certain to cast their ballot, with 51% to Trump’s 48%.

Harris maintains a 15-point lead over Trump among women, and she leads by 12 points among men, according to the September results.

Among Black voters, Harris received 74% of the vote, while Trump secured 24% in the multi-candidate race.

When it comes to favorability ratings, Harris edged out Trump slightly, with 47% of respondents viewing her favorably and 46% negatively. Trump, on the other hand, was viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 50%.

52% of respondents considered Harris the candidate most likely to bring about change, compared to 47% for Trump. Similarly, 52% believed Harris was more likely than Trump to care about the average American.

On ideology, 47% of those polled viewed Harris as too liberal, 41% said her views were “about right,” and 9% thought she was too conservative. For Trump, 10% felt he was too liberal, 43% considered him too conservative, and 43% said his views were “about right.”

When asked about the generic congressional ballot, 46% of respondents said they would support the Democrat, while 45% would back the Republican.

On specific issues, Trump performed better on immigration (53%), the Middle East (51%), and the economy (52%), while Harris had an advantage on abortion (56%).

In the RealClearPolitics average of polls leading up to Tuesday night’s debate, Harris held a 1.9-point lead over Trump nationally. However, according to the RCP no-tossup battleground state map, Trump had the edge.

During a Wednesday morning interview on Fox & Friends, Trump criticized ABC News, accusing debate moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis of being biased against him while giving Harris a free pass on her points.

Additionally, singer Taylor Swift—who described herself as a “childless cat lady”—announced her endorsement just minutes after the debate between Trump and Harris concluded on Tuesday night.