Poll: Trump Surges 14-Pts With Independents, Latinos Shift 19-Pts In Ex-Prez’s Favor
A recent poll shows that former President Donald Trump has made significant strides against Vice President Kamala Harris, gaining approximately 14 points with independents and 19 points among Latino voters.
According to new polling data from NPR/PBS News/Marist, Trump now leads Harris by three points among independents in a multi-candidate matchup, with 49% to her 46%. This marks a dramatic turnaround since August, when Trump was trailing Harris by 11 points, 48% to 37%.
In the time between the two polls, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who had previously garnered 12% of the vote, withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump. Meanwhile, Harris's post-nomination “honeymoon” appears to be fading.
Among Latino voters, Trump previously held a 15-point lead over Harris in August, with a 54% to 39% advantage. As of the latest polling, Trump leads by four points, securing 51% to Harris's 47%.
“When Trump and Harris square off in Philadelphia, the stakes are sky-high because the contest is so close,” commented Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
“Only single digits separate the candidates on most issues important to voters. But voters who value honesty are overwhelmingly for Harris, and voters looking for strong leadership are mostly in Trump’s corner. Will this still be the case on Wednesday morning?” Miringoff added.
The poll also found that nearly 70% of Americans plan to watch the upcoming debate, though only 30% of registered voters believe it will influence their decision. Meanwhile, 69% say it is unlikely to change their opinion.
In another positive development for Trump, he has reduced Harris's lead in a national head-to-head race by two points. Harris currently leads Trump 49% to 48%, a narrower margin than in August, when she was ahead 48% to 45%.
Interestingly, Trump led President Biden by one point, 43% to 42%, in a separate matchup conducted in July.
In terms of voter enthusiasm, Harris has a slight edge. Among those certain to vote, she leads Trump 51% to 48%, according to the September data.
Among women voters, Harris leads Trump by 15 points, while she holds a 12-point lead among men. Harris also dominates with black voters, receiving 74% of their support compared to Trump's 24%.
In terms of favorability, Harris holds a slight edge, with 47% viewing her positively and 46% negatively. Trump, on the other hand, has a 45% favorable rating, with 50% viewing him unfavorably.
When asked which candidate is more likely to support change, 52% of respondents said Harris, compared to 47% for Trump. Similarly, 52% of those surveyed believe Harris is more concerned about the average American than Trump.
On ideology, 47% of respondents believe Harris is too liberal, while 41% think her views are “about right,” and 9% view her as too conservative. In comparison, 10% believe Trump is too liberal, 43% say he’s too conservative, and 43% find his views “about right.”
On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats hold a slim lead, with 46% of respondents supporting the Democratic candidate and 45% backing the Republican.
Trump outperformed Harris on key issues like immigration (53%), the Middle East (51%), and the economy (52%), while Harris led on abortion (56%).
As of Tuesday night, Harris held a 1.9-point lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls heading into their debate. However, in key battleground states, Trump maintains an edge.
During an appearance on Fox & Friends, Trump criticized ABC News, accusing moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis of being biased against him in the first debate, claiming they gave Harris a free pass.
Additionally, pop star Taylor Swift—who referred to herself as a “childless cat lady”—revealed her endorsement just minutes after the debate between Trump and Harris on Tuesday night.