Poll: Voters More Confident Trump Will Win over Harris in November
Voters are showing more confidence that former President Donald Trump will reclaim the presidency than they are in his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.
A recent Rasmussen Reports survey, released last week, revealed that voters think the former president is more likely to win, although the margin isn't significantly large.
The survey question asked was, "Regardless of who you plan to vote for, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election?"
Results showed that 45% of likely voters believe Trump will return to the White House, 43% think it will be Harris, and 11% are uncertain.
When breaking down the results by party affiliation, the numbers reflect almost identical confidence in each candidate.
For Democrats, the survey indicated that 76% believe Harris will win, while only 16% think Trump will defeat her, with 7% uncertain.
Among Republicans, 77% said they believe Trump will reclaim the presidency, while 16% think Harris will win, and 7% remain unsure.
The two party camps produced strikingly similar numbers.
However, a plurality of independents believes Trump will defeat Harris by a considerable margin, with 45% favoring Trump, 36% backing Harris, and 19% remaining uncertain.
"Among those who say they’ll vote for Harris, 87% say she is most likely to win, compared to 82% of Trump voters who think he is the most likely winner. It’s among undecided voters that Trump has a decisive advantage on this question, with 35% believing him to be most likely to win, compared to just 3% who see Harris as the likely winner," the report stated.
The former president has also made gains over Harris in both national and state-level polling, according to a new Marist poll.
"While Harris (71%) leads Trump (28%) among likely voters planning to vote by mail or absentee ballot, Trump (58%) has the upper hand over Harris (40%) among those planning to vote on Election Day. Those intending to vote early are split, with 50% for Trump and 48% for Harris."
Trump leads Harris among white likely voters, with 53% supporting him compared to 45% for Harris. Conversely, Harris leads among non-white voters, with 60% to Trump’s 39%, though still trailing behind Biden's 2020 performance (71%) among this group.
A new poll shows that Trump is leading Harris in five of the seven key swing states, which will play a critical role in determining the election outcome.
According to an AtlasIntel survey of likely voters in battleground states, Trump leads in Pennsylvania (51% to 48.1%) and Michigan (50.6% to 47.2%).
The former president also holds a "narrow" lead in contested states: Arizona (49.8% to 48.6%), Georgia (49.6% to 49%), and Wisconsin (49.7% to 48.2%), according to AtlasIntel. Meanwhile, Harris leads in Nevada (50.5% to 47.7%) and North Carolina (50.5% to 48.1%).
AtlasIntel was recognized by 538 as one of the most accurate polling organizations during the 2020 election. If Trump secures victory in the five battleground states where he currently leads, he would surpass Harris’s projected 248 Electoral College votes and win the 2024 election with 290 Electoral College votes.
The AtlasIntel polls were conducted between September 20 and 25, with a margin of error ranging from two to three percentage points.
In response to the poll results, a Trump spokesperson told Newsweek, "Americans are fed up with Kamala Harris and her failed policies, which have led to soaring inflation, an uncontrolled border, and rampant crime terrorizing communities. She is weak, ineffective, and dangerously liberal, and the American people can see through her."
According to the AtlasIntel poll, Trump is expected to win two of Harris’s most crucial "blue wall" battleground states.