Pollster Nate Silver Gives Trump Massive Edge To Defeat Harris

If you watch mainstream media, you might think that Vice President Kamala Harris defeating former President Donald Trump is inevitable, but experts are seeing things differently.

Nate Silver, founder of the polling site FiveThirtyEight, now publishes his election model on Substack and currently gives Trump a significant advantage. On Wednesday, Silver’s model showed Trump with a 58.2% chance of winning the presidency, while Harris stands at 41.6%.

Just last week, the model had Trump at 52.4% compared to Harris’ 47.3%. Silver explained that the drop in Harris' chances is tied to her polling in battleground states, which historically play a critical role in deciding presidential elections.

“There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately. The chance of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college has risen to 18%,” Silver posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Silver pointed out that key states like Pennsylvania and Michigan have become problematic for Harris. “In PA, our polling averages had Harris +1.8 pre-DNC, but it’s now Harris +1.0. That’s before any convention bounce adjustment. In MI, the polling average has fallen from Harris +3.1 pre-DNC to Harris +1.9 now,” he noted.

By Thursday, things had worsened. “More mediocre swing state polls for Harris, and her lead in national polls is down a tick, too, to 3.0 points,” Silver stated. He added that her raw polling averages had declined in most swing states since the Democratic National Convention.

Silver also clarified that he is not biased toward Trump, stating that he plans to vote for Harris, despite the current polling trends.

CNN’s political director, David Chalian, echoed these concerns, emphasizing that Harris is struggling with white voters without college degrees, a demographic where Trump holds a significant lead. Chalian also noted that Harris needs to gain ground with white, college-educated voters in key battleground states.

Meanwhile, the Biden-Harris administration faced additional challenges as economic data released this week provided more disappointing news. The U.S. economy added just 142,000 jobs in August, falling short of the expected 161,000. Additionally, the job gains from previous months were revised downward, adding further uncertainty to the economic outlook.

As the economy and personal finances become central issues for voters heading into November, these factors could significantly influence the election's outcome.