Pollsters: RFK's Backing Could Be the Key for Trump's Victory

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ending his campaign and throwing his support behind former President Donald Trump is a scenario that Vice President Kamala Harris would dread.

Although Kennedy was polling at just about 5 percent nationwide as an independent candidate, in a closely contested race between the two major candidates, that small percentage could be the deciding factor for the presidency, according to a report by The New York Post.

“Most of Kennedy’s left-leaning supporters had already shifted to Harris,” said Dave Wasserman, a senior editor and elections analyst at Cook Political Report, speaking to The Post. “This endorsement could present a significant advantage for Trump.”

“In our August survey of battleground states, we’re likely looking at a shift of just a fraction of a percentage point,” he noted. “Forty-six percent of RFK supporters favored Trump in a head-to-head race, 26% leaned towards Harris, and Kennedy’s national support had dropped from 8% to 5%.”

“Campaigns are willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars for even a fractional gain, given how tight the margins are in these battleground states,” he said, pointing to the narrow differences seen in the 2020 election, especially in states like Arizona and Georgia.

“RFK’s endorsement won’t necessarily transfer all his supporters to Trump,” he added. “We’re in a highly unpredictable political climate, and that volatility might continue through the election.”

Chris Lane, a pollster with Cygnal, emphasized that “among the swing voters who are likely to decide this election, 16% were planning to vote for RFK.”

“With razor-thin margins in battleground states, that 16% could be the difference between winning and losing a state,” Lane explained. “If RFK urges his followers to support Trump, it could dramatically alter the outcome for both Trump and Harris, especially in key battleground areas.”

“Additionally, given that this 16% is generally more center-right, their votes are more likely to boost Trump’s share,” he continued. “Our data indicates that by a 4:1 ratio, these swing voters identify more as conservatives than liberals.”

Even Frank Luntz, a pollster known for his anti-Trump stance, acknowledged that RFK’s endorsement could sway the election.

“It’s probably worth about 1% for Trump, and that 1% could be decisive in swing states. Initially, Kennedy was attracting 10%, 12%, even up to 14% of the vote because he was pulling support away from Joe Biden. Now, with Biden out and Harris in his place, Kennedy’s support has dwindled to around 4% or 5%, and what remains is largely a pro-Trump vote,” Luntz said during an appearance on NewsNation with host Leland Vittert after the endorsement.

“Some of his supporters may choose not to vote in November, but of those who do, nearly two-thirds are likely to vote for Trump over Harris, which could translate into a critical 1% in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin,” Luntz added.

He also criticized the media’s reaction to RFK’s endorsement.

“If Kennedy had endorsed Harris, he would probably be hailed as a hero, but since he backed Trump, the coverage isn’t giving him the credit he deserves. As we approach the last 73 days of this campaign, it’s crucial to be mindful of the motivations behind the information we’re receiving,” Luntz cautioned.

Scott Rasmussen, the founder of Rasmussen Reports, noted that recent polling indicates a “slight” benefit for Trump.

“RMG Research polling for the Napolitan Institute this week showed Harris leading by 2 points, 48% to 46%, with RFK in the race at 3%. When we pressed RFK supporters to choose between the main candidates, the race was tied at 49% each,” Rasmussen stated.

“While this suggests a modest boost for Trump, other factors could have a more significant impact on the race — especially debates and economic trends,” he pointed out.

“However, in recent years, the Electoral College outcome has been determined by just a few votes in key swing states,” Rasmussen added. “If that happens again, even a small shift in RFK supporters’ votes could prove crucial.”