Raffensperger: You’ll Likely Get Georgia Election Results On Election Night
Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger expressed confidence that most votes in the state would be counted by the end of election night on Tuesday. Raffensperger assured that early and absentee ballots received by the weekend would be processed by 8 p.m. ET on Election Night. He emphasized that votes cast on Tuesday would be fully counted by the end of the night to ensure timely results.
During an interview with CNN’s Kate Bolduan, she inquired, “Last cycle is when the results… when the race could be called in Georgia. We were looking back… I think CNN made the call that Joe Biden won Georgia… maybe 10 days after we knew.” Bolduan referenced the time taken for final results due to extensive reviews and asked when results could be expected this time.
Raffensperger replied, "This… I do know that all ballots cast for this early vote and absentee… received this weekend will be reported no later than [8 p.m.] The voting that happens on Tuesday… will all be in before the end of the night." He added that smaller counties should finish by around 10 p.m., while larger ones may take slightly longer. "By the end of the night, every vote cast… will be up on the board," he assured.
Raffensperger noted that any remaining votes would include military ballots and absentee ballots received on Monday or Tuesday, which would be tabulated post-Election Day. He stated that while some 10,000 ballots might still be outstanding, most results would be available by the end of the night, avoiding delays like those seen in 2020.
In other election news, data scientist Thomas Miller, who previously projected a big win for Vice President Kamala Harris, now predicts a potential victory for former President Donald Trump. Miller, known for correctly predicting the 2020 presidential outcome, had initially forecast Harris to secure more than 400 electoral votes. However, his model, based on betting odds rather than polling data, now indicates a lead for Trump, with Republicans potentially winning 345 Electoral College votes, as reported by Newsweek.
This revised model predicts Trump would win states where Harris currently has less than a ten-point lead, including key areas in the South and Midwest. Miller first predicted a narrow win for Trump on October 7, coinciding with shifts in betting odds favoring him.
Miller’s model, which emphasizes “fundamentals” or historical election patterns, integrates betting data from PredictIt. He used similar data to accurately predict the 2020 race. However, Miller noted on October 20 that “technical and fundamental analyses are not in alignment,” indicating past trends favor Democrats while betting odds favor Trump.
Although polls show a close race, betting markets continue to favor Trump, with Polymarket odds giving him a 60.3% chance nationally versus Harris’s 39.7%. While betting odds have historically aligned with election outcomes, they differ from polls in methodology, which can lead to discrepancies.
To address potential bias, Miller adjusts his model for any Republican tilt, explaining to Newsweek that “Prediction markets have a Republican bias… We assess the degree of bias and adjust accordingly, although the exact level in 2024 remains uncertain.” His latest forecast shows Harris winning only 171 Electoral College votes, marking a historically low projection for a major candidate since 1996.
Miller added, “The 2024 race… has fluctuated from toss-up to Republican landslide… to a possible Democratic landslide and back,” anticipating increased trading and volatility in the final days before November 5.
In the history of U.S. presidential elections since 1980, only the 2016 race saw the winning candidate (Trump) with poorer odds than the losing candidate, as both betting markets and polls underestimated his victory.