Republican Voter Registrations Surging Ahead of Democrats in Key Swing States
Data from Michael Pruser of Decision Desk shows that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in registering new voters in critical battleground states.
According to Just the News, which cited the data, Republicans registered 337,107 new voters in September across 25 states, compared to 210,711 new Democrats and 302,944 other newly registered voters.
In Pennsylvania, the GOP nearly doubled Democratic registrations, gaining 60,710 new voters, while Democrats added 35,864. An additional 32,698 voters registered under other affiliations.
In North Carolina, Republicans registered 19,434 new voters, while Democrats gained 11,742. Other affiliations accounted for 45,274 new registrations.
Florida saw significant Republican gains as well, with 60,436 new GOP voters compared to 36,116 for Democrats, and 48,919 voters from other affiliations.
Even in solidly blue California, Republicans saw some gains, adding 51,636 new voters versus 37,814 for Democrats. The state also recorded 49,003 voters registering with other parties. Despite these numbers, the GOP’s growth in California is unlikely to affect the upcoming election.
Meanwhile, in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, polling indicates a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. A new survey, conducted by a bipartisan team for AARP, reveals that Harris is leading with 49 percent of likely voters, compared to 47 percent for Trump and 2 percent for other candidates. Three percent of voters remain undecided.
The poll, carried out from September 17 to 24 using a mix of landlines, cell phones, and text-to-web methods, is the first AARP has conducted in Pennsylvania since President Joe Biden exited the race.
Back in April, Biden was trailing by 5 points overall. Among voters aged 18 to 49, he was behind by 1 point; now, Harris leads this group by 14 points. Biden was also losing independents by 6 points, while Harris is now ahead by 9. Furthermore, she’s performing better than Biden among Democrats, women, suburban voters, rural voters, and voters without a college degree.
However, Harris is trailing among voters aged 65 and older, losing this group by 7 points.
“Harris’ biggest weakness is older voters. It is the biggest share of the electorate, and she is behind,” said Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose firm, Fabrizio Ward, helped conduct the survey.
Economic concerns, especially inflation, appear to be influencing older voters in favor of Trump. Among voters aged 50 and above who cite inflation and high prices as their top issues, Trump leads Harris by 54 points.
Jeffrey Liszt, a Democratic pollster with Impact Research, which collaborated on the AARP poll, noted that Trump’s higher retrospective job approval rating poses a challenge for Harris. “A big piece of that is the economy,” Liszt told POLITICO.
“It’s been a core strength of Donald Trump’s that he’s branded himself as a businessman, especially through ‘The Apprentice,’” said Liszt, who also works with Harris’ campaign. “When you look back at the job people think he did, his rating is higher than hers. That’s her core vulnerability and his core strength.”
Currently, 50 percent of likely voters approve of Trump’s performance as president, while 49 percent disapprove. In contrast, 45 percent approve of Harris’s job as vice president, with 52 percent disapproving. Despite this, Liszt noted that Trump is 7 points underwater in terms of personal popularity, while Harris is just 3 points underwater.
Liszt highlighted that Trump faces hurdles, particularly given Harris’s support among independents and her success in consolidating younger voters and older Black voters—two key Democratic blocs that were previously hesitant about Biden. On the other hand, Ward noted that if Trump “could expand his margins among older voters, particularly older women, he has a good chance to pull ahead in this race.”