Republican Voters Shattering Early Ballot Records In Key States

With backing from former President Donald Trump, Republicans are returning to the polls for early in-person voting, contributing to a national tally of nearly 19 million early ballots cast so far.

Swing states like Georgia and North Carolina are witnessing record-setting early voting turnouts, according to a report from the Associated Press on Monday.

The GOP is counting on this early voting surge to solve a logistical issue that some in the party believe contributed to losses in the 2020 presidential election and key races in 2022. Campaigns often encourage early voting from their supporters to free up resources for last-minute efforts to reach undecided voters on Election Day.

“I’m telling everyone to vote early,” Trump urged during a recent podcast hosted by conservative commentator and former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino.

Republican voters seem to be heeding his call. In Nevada, where Democrats have historically counted on strong early voting turnout to balance Republican Election Day votes, around 6,000 more Republicans had cast early ballots compared to Democrats as of Tuesday, according to Associated Press data.

However, this early turnout doesn’t necessarily predict the final outcome. Early voting figures reflect party registrations, not actual voting preferences, and as the voting process continues, the makeup of the early electorate can shift daily, the AP cautioned.

The significant early voting turnout seen among Democrats in 2020 was largely a reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, which no longer plays a role in this election cycle. As a result, historical comparisons are more complex. Early voting trends, especially demographic shifts, may also look different when Election Day votes are counted.

The AP also reminded readers that the election is still in its early stages. Wisconsin, one of the seven key swing states, only started early voting on Tuesday, and the 17.4 million votes cast so far represent just 11% of the total ballots from the 2020 presidential election.

Although early voting can give one party an advantage, this advantage can evaporate if all their supporters have already cast their ballots while the opposition's base waits for Election Day, a pattern that has historically benefited Republicans.

James Blair, political director for Trump’s campaign, noted that their data shows a higher turnout of low-propensity voters—those less likely to vote—casting early ballots this year. Blair pointed out that these voters tend to favor Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris. “The starting point is, we’re in a strong spot,” Blair said.

In Pennsylvania, a key battleground, Democrats have submitted around 350,000 more mail-in ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday. However, the GOP is closing the gap by encouraging early in-person voting in several competitive states, the AP noted.

Continuing a trend from October, Trump has widened his lead over Harris in the latest daily tracking poll from Rasmussen Reports.

According to the organization’s findings, which were shared with Secrets, Trump now holds a 3-point advantage, with 50% of likely voters supporting him compared to Harris’s 47%. This marks a slight increase from a previous poll where Trump led by 49% to 47%.

The Washington Examiner reported that Trump’s lead includes a 49%-45% margin among Hispanic voters, and he has garnered 32% support among Black voters, based on Rasmussen’s data.

Rasmussen, which recently started a daily presidential tracking poll, expanded its sample on Monday to 3,384 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

The polling model continues to follow the demographic breakdown from the 2020 election, including 35% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 32% independents, the outlet added.