Republicans May Lose Control Of House Before 2026: Analysis
The Republican Party currently holds both chambers of Congress, but according to an analysis released Monday by The Hill, the GOP risks losing control of the House.
The analysis zeroes in on a high-stakes race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court — a critical battleground state that President Donald Trump carried in both 2016 and 2024. Voters will head to the polls on April 1 to determine whether the court keeps its 4-3 liberal majority or if conservatives regain control.
If the Democrat-backed candidate prevails, it could spell disaster for the GOP-led House.
“The Republicans are currently clinging to a razor-thin 218-215 House majority. A liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court could strike down the state’s congressional map, costing Republicans two seats and potentially flipping control of the House,” The Hill’s analysis stated.
This isn’t the first time Republicans have let a judicial race in Wisconsin slip away. In 2023, their conservative candidate for the state’s high court was outspent by more than five-to-one and ultimately lost by 11 points. While Democrats funneled in massive financial support from across the country, national Republican groups largely failed to mobilize, according to the analysis.
“Unless Republicans wake up, they are destined to repeat history just two short years later,” the analysis warned.
The analysis further explained:
While Wisconsin’s judicial elections are technically non-partisan, they’ve evolved into intensely partisan showdowns, with candidates taking clear stances on divisive topics like crime, abortion, voter ID laws, and taxes.
This year, the Democratic-supported candidate, Susan Crawford — a circuit court judge from deep-blue Dane County, home to Madison — is making her approach crystal clear: attack her conservative opponent, former Wisconsin Attorney General Brad Schimel, over abortion, while simultaneously using her campaign to promise Democrats that a victory would enable them to redraw the state’s congressional districts.
Crawford wasted no time going on the offensive. She launched early attacks and sent fundraising emails openly pledging that, if she wins, she will work to secure two more U.S. House seats for Democrats, according to the analysis.
The analysis also stresses that national Republican leaders and donors need to recognize the significance of this race — particularly because it’s the first major election since Trump’s November win. The national media will be watching for any Republican misstep.
“If the Wisconsin Supreme Court retains its current liberal majority, expect the left-wing headline writers to have a field day: ‘Wisconsin Rejects MAGA!’ ‘Republicans Fumble, Again!’ ‘Trump’s Grip on Wisconsin Slips!’ The liberal media have been searching for a shred of good news, and Republicans losing this election would fit the bill,” the analysis noted.
Polling data from OnMessage Inc. underscores just how tight this contest is. Their recent statewide survey of likely voters for the April election found both Schimel and Crawford tied at 38 percent each.
Republicans have a clear path to victory, the analysis said, but if they repeat the mistake of being vastly outspent — as they were in 2023 — they risk losing yet again.
The analysis adds: “If resources come into the state, they must be used to inform the 1.7 million Trump voters from November 2024 that there is an election on April Fools Day, and it is no joke. Right now, though, the money isn’t there, because Republican donors don’t seem to care. The only major-dollar Republican activist who has even noticed this race is ever forward-looking Elon Musk, who is reportedly spending money through his super PAC to help the conservative candidate. It is a start, but other Republican donors from all over the country need to ‘ride to the sound of the guns’ and engage to match the Democrats’ onslaught that’s already begun.”
Beyond the national consequences for Trump and the Republican Party, the analysis warns that Crawford’s judicial record itself raises serious red flags. As a circuit court judge, she routinely approved early release for violent offenders — including criminals convicted of shootings, domestic abuse, and even child rape.
Crawford has also publicly pushed for eliminating Voter ID laws and endorses tax hikes. Electing her to Wisconsin’s Supreme Court would jeopardize Republican control of Congress, put Wisconsin’s public safety at risk, and threaten broader judicial stability, the analysis concluded.