Republicans May Lose Control Of House Before 2026: Analysis
The Republican Party currently holds both chambers of Congress, but its grip on the House is at risk, according to an analysis published Monday by The Hill.
The report highlights a crucial state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin—a key battleground state that President Donald Trump carried in both 2016 and 2024. On April 1, voters will decide whether the court maintains its current 4-3 liberal majority or if conservatives regain control.
A victory for the Democrat-backed candidate could spell trouble for the Republican-controlled House.
“The Republicans are currently clinging to a razor-thin 218-215 House majority. A liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court could strike down the state’s congressional map, costing Republicans two seats and potentially flipping control of the House,” The Hill’s analysis stated.
The GOP previously missed an opportunity in 2023 when their conservative candidate for the Supreme Court was heavily outspent—by a more than five-to-one margin—and lost by 11 points. The report points out that while Democrats received significant financial support from across the country, national Republicans largely failed to rally behind their candidate.
“Unless Republicans wake up, they are destined to repeat history just two short years later,” the analysis warned.
The report further elaborates:
Although Wisconsin’s judicial elections are officially non-partisan, they have become highly polarized, with candidates taking clear stances on pivotal issues such as crime, abortion, voter ID laws, and taxation.
This year, the Democratic-aligned candidate, Susan Crawford, a circuit court judge from deep-blue Dane County (which includes Madison), is openly signaling her strategy: aggressively attacking her conservative opponent, former Wisconsin Attorney General Brad Schimel, on abortion while leveraging fundraising efforts by promising to help Democrats reshape the state’s congressional districts.
She wasted no time in going on the offensive, launching attacks and sending fundraising emails where she explicitly pledges that, if elected, she will fight to secure two additional U.S. House seats for Democrats, according to the analysis.
National Republicans and donors must take this race seriously, the report urges, as it represents the first major election following President Trump’s November victory. The media will be closely observing, ready to seize on any Republican misstep.
“If the Wisconsin Supreme Court retains its current liberal majority, expect the left-wing headline writers to have a field day: ‘Wisconsin Rejects MAGA!’ ‘Republicans Fumble, Again!’ ‘Trump’s Grip on Wisconsin Slips!’ The liberal media have been searching for a shred of good news, and Republicans losing this election would fit the bill,” the analysis noted.
A new poll from OnMessage Inc. underscores how competitive this race is. A statewide survey of likely voters for the April general election shows Schimel and Crawford in a statistical tie, each garnering 38 percent support.
Republicans have a viable path to victory, but if they allow themselves to be significantly outspent, as happened in 2023, they risk another defeat, the analysis cautioned.
It continued: “If resources come into the state, they must be used to inform the 1.7 million Trump voters from November 2024 that there is an election on April Fools Day, and it is no joke. Right now, though, the money isn’t there, because Republican donors don’t seem to care. The only major-dollar Republican activist who has even noticed this race is ever forward-looking Elon Musk, who is reportedly spending money through his super PAC to help the conservative candidate. It is a start, but other Republican donors from all over the country need to ‘ride to the sound of the guns’ and engage to match the Democrats’ onslaught that’s already begun.”
Beyond the national stakes for Trump and the GOP, Crawford’s judicial record presents serious concerns. As a circuit court judge, she has granted early release to violent criminals, including individuals convicted of shootings, domestic abuse, and even child rape, according to the analysis.
Additionally, Crawford has publicly supported the elimination of voter ID requirements and has backed tax increases. Electing her to Wisconsin’s Supreme Court would jeopardize Republican control of Congress, threaten public safety in the state, and undermine judicial stability, the analysis concluded.