Sen. Susan Collins’ Reelection Plans May Complicate Democrats’ Senate Goals
Sen. Susan Collins' decision to seek reelection could present challenges for Democrats aiming to reclaim the Senate majority during the 2026 midterm elections.
Speaking with The Washington Examiner on Thursday, the Maine Republican announced her intention to run for another term in two years. Maine, which supported Vice President Kamala Harris in this year's presidential race, is considered a potential pickup opportunity for Democrats, especially if a "blue wave" reminiscent of 2018 under former President Donald Trump’s administration occurs.
“I’m focused on the appropriations process, not elections right now, but my intention is to run,” Collins said in her remarks to the Examiner.
Collins' decision to pursue reelection would be a strategic advantage for Republicans in the midterms. Known for her enduring popularity among Maine voters, the senator would likely have a stronger chance of holding the seat compared to other Republican contenders. Despite Maine’s tendency to lean Democratic, Collins has successfully appealed to both independent and Democratic voters in prior elections.
Regardless of Collins’ candidacy, the Maine Senate race is expected to be among the most competitive of the midterms. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats during the first midterm elections, and Democrats will look to capitalize on national momentum to challenge Collins. As noted by Newsweek, her role will remain critical in upcoming debates over GOP-led legislation and appointments under Trump’s potential administration.
Collins’ last reelection bid in 2020 saw her narrowly defeating former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, earning 51% of the vote despite polls favoring Gideon. This marked the closest race of Collins’ career, as some Democrats distanced themselves from her during Trump’s presidency, particularly after her controversial vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. In contrast, she had secured reelection in 2014 with a decisive 37-point lead.
Maine's use of a ranked-choice voting system, which lets voters rank candidates by preference, could be pivotal in 2026. If Democrats can keep Collins below 50% of the vote—an outcome Gideon nearly achieved in 2020—they could potentially unseat her, as Newsweek pointed out.
Beyond Maine, Democrats face limited prospects for flipping Senate seats. Their strongest chance might lie in North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis is up for reelection, although Democrats haven’t won a Senate race there since 2008.
Other possible targets, including Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio (with a special election), present steep challenges. These states all supported Trump by double-digit margins in this year’s elections, highlighting the uphill battle posed by the Senate map, Newsweek further explained.
Collins is anticipated to play a significant role in the Senate over the next two years, standing out as one of the few moderate Republican voices who might serve as a check on Trump. For example, she has already voiced concerns about the president-elect’s rumored consideration of Representative Matt Gaetz for attorney general.
This year, Maine demonstrated some resilience for Democrats. Harris won the state by a 7-point margin, just 2 points shy of President Joe Biden's 2020 performance, even as the national popular vote shifted nearly 6 points in favor of Republicans.
Meanwhile, Senator Angus King, an independent who aligns with Democrats, won reelection comfortably in Maine. However, the race for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District remains unresolved, with Democratic Representative Jared Golden narrowly ahead in a district where Trump performed strongly.
Nationally, Republicans gained four Senate seats this election cycle, securing control of the chamber for the first time since 2020. However, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey of Ohio has not conceded to his opponent, Trump-endorsed Dave McCormack, despite the Associated Press projecting a Republican victory. The narrow margin has triggered an automatic recount as required by law.