Survey Indicates Harris Closing in on Trump, Though He Maintains Lead
A recent poll for The Wall Street Journal reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris has made substantial gains against former President Donald Trump in the race against President Joe Biden, yet the GOP candidate retains notable advantages as the election cycle intensifies.
The poll results show Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 49-47 percent, within the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error. Earlier this month, Trump had a 6-point lead when Biden withdrew and endorsed Harris.
The WSJ noted:
On a ballot test that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other independent and third-party candidates, Harris receives 45% and Trump gets 44%. Kennedy is backed by just 4% and 5% remain undecided. Biden trailed in the multicandidate contest by six points in the last poll.
Harris has made strides in reassembling the coalition that put Biden in the White House in 2020, one that had been fraying under the stress of unease about his physical and mental sharpness. Black, Latino and young voters all showed greater support for her than they did for Biden in a Journal survey taken in the days after his disastrous debate performance on June 27.
Changes in the demographic makeup of Democratic support could shift the states where Harris might compete effectively against Trump, a Republican aiming for a third term. Increased backing from nonwhite voters could help her in more diverse battleground states—Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina—where Biden had struggled.
“Only 37% of Biden voters were enthusiastic about him in early July, but now 81% of Harris voters are enthusiastic about her,” said Democratic pollster Mike Bocian, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster David Lee. “This is an astounding change.”
Nevertheless, Trump enjoys significant advantages. Despite increased enthusiasm for Harris among Democrats, Republicans remain more eager to vote for the former president. Lee warned that Democrats should not be overly confident in Harris.
“While Democrats and many in the media will tout these tightened ballot numbers as a change in the race, remember that in July 2020, The Wall Street Journal’s national polling had Biden leading Trump by 9 points and by 11 points in August,” he told the WSJ. “Donald Trump is in a far better position in this election compared to a similar time in 2020.”
Lee also highlighted Trump’s job approval ratings as president in this survey, the highest recorded so far this election cycle. “A majority of voters—51%—approve of the job Trump did as president, while a majority of voters—50%—disapprove of the job Kamala Harris is doing as vice president.”
The Journal added: “A race that is essentially tied nationally means Trump would still likely have the Electoral College advantage, given the way the country’s population is dispersed. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 3 million votes but won more than 300 out of 538 Electoral College votes.”
Harris also faces considerable challenges due to her association with the Biden administration, which has been marked by a chaotic southern border, rising prices, and prolonged conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
According to the poll, Trump is perceived as more capable than Harris in handling immigration, the economy, foreign relations, and crime. However, Harris is preferred over Trump 51% to 33% on the issue of abortion. The two are rated closely on the question of who best “cares about people like you.”