Swing State Voter Reveals Reason Why Harris Won’t Win There
Before President Joe Biden decided to end his career last week and essentially designate his vice president, Kamala Harris, as his successor for the Democratic ticket, there had been a renewed focus on polling in key swing states.
For much of the past year, former President Donald Trump had been leading Biden in the crucial battleground states that typically determine presidential elections. In most cases, Trump's lead had been growing in the days and weeks before Biden stepped down following his poor debate performance in late June.
This week, however, polling in those same states between Trump and Harris has become more competitive, with Trump's lead decreasing in nearly all of them or, in one survey, being tied with Harris in Wisconsin. However, this doesn't mean Harris is poised to easily secure both her party's nomination and the presidency with the election just months away.
One focus group voter in Pennsylvania, for instance, expressed doubts about Harris's chances, citing gender biases. “I don’t think a lot of men will vote for Harris, I just don’t,” Pamela Aita told CNN’s John King. “Whether you’re Democrat, Republican, whatever, I just don’t think the majority of men are ready for a female president.”
According to Real Clear Polling’s average of polls from July 9 to July 23, Trump leads Harris by 3.6% in a head-to-head matchup in Pennsylvania. However, when including Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy and Cornel West, the lead shrinks to 1.5%, the Daily Caller reported.
Trump holds a significant lead over Harris among men, 53% to 42%, according to a CNN poll from July 22 to July 23. In a 2020 exit poll by CNN, Trump led Biden among men 53% to 45%.
Another voter believed Harris could win Pennsylvania. “You know, she’s, she’s at the perfect age. She’s committed, she’s vigorous and I, overwhelmingly, the women I talked to are, ‘Let’s go, Let’s go,” Darrell Ann Murphy told King.
King later mentioned that the support from white men in the polls could indicate Harris's potential to carry several states. “What does the data tell us? Well, let’s leave it on the 2016 map. We don’t have good data about Harris yet. What you’re seeing these polls, she’s certainly more competitive. She’s certainly more competitive than Biden was, that’s a given,” King told CNN host Phil Mattingly.
“Just wait, let’s wait a few weeks before we know, but here’s the key, right? Look at, this is just Pennsylvania white men, right? Hillary Clinton got 32%, she lost. Joe Biden got up to 37%, he won, right? That’s Pennsylvania,” King continued. “Think about Joe Biden wins the blue wall. These are national numbers, but we have tended to have nationalized elections now, so again, among white men, Hillary Clinton gets 31, she loses Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, the Electoral College, Biden gets a little higher, 38%, he wins the blue wall states and these more competitive elsewhere.”
But also on Friday, CNN’s data expert Harry Enten shared some discouraging news regarding Harris’s presidential bid. “For all the excitement that Democrats have over Kamala Harris, it is going to be difficult to beat Donald Trump, and I want to give you an understanding of why,” Enten began.
“Let’s take a look here just first at the favorable views of Donald Trump. We know that Donald Trump has historically been unpopular, but take a look now. After the Republican National Convention, in the ABC News-Ipsos poll, he recorded his highest-ever favorable rating at 40%. That’s not a one-off. Take a look at the Quinnipiac University poll, 46%. That’s the highest ever in that pollster. The fact is Donald Trump is more popular now than he ever has been before,” Enten continued.
“So, yes, Democrats can make this switch-a-roo but they’re still going to have to beat Donald Trump — a Donald Trump who is stronger than he has ever been before,” he concluded.