Top 2020 Pollster Releases Final Trump-Harris Election Survey

With only a week remaining until Election Day, AtlasIntel—the polling firm most accurate during the 2020 cycle—has released new data indicating a shift in momentum favoring former President Donald Trump in pivotal swing states.

The data reveals that Trump has now taken the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in several battleground states, altering the dynamics of what has been a highly competitive race.

The polling of swing states provides a clear view of the current electoral landscape. Trump holds a lead in six out of the seven states surveyed, many of which were instrumental in President Joe Biden's 2020 victory.

In Arizona, Trump leads by 3.5 points, marking a shift in a state Biden narrowly won in the last election. Similarly, in Georgia, another state that turned blue in 2020, Trump is up by 3.4 points.

Pennsylvania—a critical state in any presidential election—shows Trump ahead by 2.7 points, potentially creating difficulties for Harris in a state Democrats view as essential. The margins are closer in Michigan and Nevada, with Trump leading by 1.2 and 0.9 points, respectively.

In Wisconsin, Trump holds a slim 0.5-point lead, indicating a tight race that could be decided by a small margin. The only swing state where Harris currently leads is North Carolina, where her advantage is just 0.5 points, underscoring the overall competitiveness of this race in a traditionally red-leaning state.

National polling paints a similarly tight picture.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Harris by 1.7 points, with 49.8% support compared to Harris's 48.1%. In a scenario with additional candidates, Trump’s lead grows slightly to 2.5 points, holding 49.5% support.

Harris is polling at 47%, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein draws 0.8%, and Libertarian Larry Sharpe receives 0.2%. Harris faces the dual challenge of closing Trump’s leads in key battlegrounds and securing support from undecided voters who could ultimately determine the outcome.

In Arizona’s Senate race, the competition is also heating up between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake.

AtlasIntel's latest poll indicates that Gallego holds a narrow 0.5-point edge over Lake, polling at 48.4% compared to Lake’s 47.9%, with other candidates capturing 1.2% of the vote. The race has tightened notably over the past month; Gallego’s lead was 4.1 points on September 27, 3.5 points on October 17, and now stands at just 0.5 points as of October 29.

The trend suggests that Lake has gained momentum in the final days, making the Arizona Senate race one to watch as control of the chamber remains at stake.

Broad polling trends indicate that Trump has successfully consolidated his base while gaining traction with key voter demographics in swing states. In contrast, Harris faces the task of re-energizing a Democratic coalition that appears less enthusiastic than it was in 2020.

Democrats have aimed to mobilize voters around issues like abortion rights and healthcare, yet polling suggests that economic concerns—particularly inflation and gas prices—are resonating strongly with the electorate, giving Trump an advantage in the final stretch.

In the Sun Belt, a state that hasn’t gone red since 2004, a substantial surge of early Republican voters could prove decisive.

According to the Nevada Independent, more registered Republicans in Nevada have already voted early or by mail than Democrats.

Veteran journalist Jon Ralston reports that despite an overnight increase in Democratic ballots from Clark County, a populous area, it wasn’t enough to erode the GOP's early voting lead.

“This has never happened, not even close, in The Reid Machine Era,” Ralston observed, referencing the late Senator Harry Reid (D-Nev.).