Top 2024 Pollster Weighs In On Critical House Race Ahead Of Special Election
One of the leading pollsters for the 2024 election cycle has provided Republicans with promising news about a crucial House race in a district that former President Donald Trump won by nearly 30 points. Additionally, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which could influence control of the U.S. House of Representatives, is drawing significant attention.
Quantus Insights reports that Tuesday’s special election to replace former Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who now serves as Trump’s national security adviser, features state Sen. Randy Fine against Democratic candidate Josh Weil.
Although Trump secured a dominant victory in the district last November, Fine’s lead over Weil is much narrower—just 6.6 percent as the April 1 election approaches.
On Thursday evening, Trump spoke at a tele-rally, urging supporters to turn out for Fine, encouraging them to rally their friends and family behind the Republican candidate.
Weil, a public school teacher backed by powerful unions, has significantly outpaced Fine in fundraising, amassing $10 million compared to Fine’s $1 million. This financial edge has made the race highly competitive. With turnout expected to hover between 20–25%, Fine is projected to secure victory by a margin of less than 10 points.
President Trump and Elon Musk have thrown their full support behind the Republican candidate in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race, a contest that could determine the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Both parties nationwide are closely watching the face-off between conservative Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel and liberal Dane County Judge Susan Crawford.
The winner will claim the seventh seat on the state’s Supreme Court, filling a vacancy left by a retiring judge. This decision will ultimately shape whether the court holds a 4-3 conservative or liberal majority.
Spending on the race has already exceeded the $51 million record set in Wisconsin two years ago, making it the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history. This year, that figure could surpass $100 million.
The world's wealthiest individual has played a major role in this financial shift. Campaign finance reports reveal that Musk has invested heavily in the race within the key swing state that Trump narrowly won in 2024, contributing $19.3 million to the effort.
Last week, Musk donated $2 million to the state GOP. Additionally, two organizations linked to him—America PAC, his political action committee, and Building America’s Future, a nonprofit he funds—have collectively contributed around $16 million to support the conservative candidate’s campaign.
Musk’s message to Wisconsin voters is clear: “Conservative Brad Schimel will support President Trump’s agenda! Together, we won the White House,” reads a campaign flyer paid for by America PAC. “Now it’s time to win the courthouse!”
The election also carries weight on several key issues, including abortion rights, voter ID laws, and congressional redistricting, depending on whether the court leans conservative or liberal.
Trump is paying close attention to the state as well.
In a Truth Social post on Friday, he called Crawford “the handpicked voice of the Leftists” and sharply criticized her. He also urged Wisconsin voters to back Schimel early.
“And if she (Crawford) wins, the Movement to restore our Nation will bypass Wisconsin,” Trump wrote. “All Voters who believe in Common Sense should GET OUT TO VOTE EARLY for Brad Schimel.”
“She is the handpicked voice of the Leftists who are out to destroy your State, and our Country — And if she wins, the Movement to restore our Nation will bypass Wisconsin. All Voters who believe in Common Sense should GET OUT TO VOTE EARLY for Brad Schimel,” the former president declared.
“By turning out and VOTING EARLY, you will be helping to Uphold the Rule of Law, Protect our Incredible Police, Secure our Beloved Constitution, Safeguard our Inalienable Rights, and PRESERVE LIBERTY AND JUSTICE FOR ALL,” he continued.
Despite the unprecedented financial backing and national attention, Schimel insists he is not “for sale.”
“People want to support you,” Schimel stated at a forum last month. “It should be they’re supporting you because they like the things that you stand for, not because they’re buying some result.”
Crawford, a circuit judge, has faced scrutiny over her past rulings, including one particularly lenient sentence in a child sexual assault case, as reported by Legal Newswire.
“I don’t regret that sentence because I followed the law in that case,” she said when questioned about the ruling during a recent debate.
Crawford has sought to energize anti-MAGA voters by leveraging Trump’s endorsement of Schimel against him.
“Brad Schimel is a corrupt politician who let 6,000 rape kits sit untested and gave a plea deal to a child predator whose attorney gave him $5,000,” her campaign alleged. “Schimel has spent his entire career on bent knee to right-wing special interests, we assumed he had this endorsement locked up months ago.”
“Schimel has said he wants to be a ‘support network’ for Trump and that the Wisconsin Supreme Court ‘screwed over’ Trump in 2020. Wisconsinites will reject Brad Schimel once again on April 1st,” the campaign stated.