Top Political Analyst Points to Pollsters Overlooking a 'Massive Shift'
Polls may be presenting an unclear picture of the presidential race, as they’ve missed out on tracking an expanding Republican base nationwide, according to a leading political analyst.
Alex Castellanos, a campaign veteran for GOP figures like Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, remarked on Sunday that key changes have gone unnoticed.
“I think the pollsters are getting this wrong,” Castellanos stated in a YouTube clip.
“We’re all missing something, because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn’t even statistical variation,” he emphasized.
“It’s like they’re telling us we’re watching a basketball game where every play’s a jump ball,” Castellanos added, suggesting that “somebody’s missing something.”
According to Castellanos, what pollsters are overlooking is a significant shift in voter registration trends. “What I think they’re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. Thirty-one states have voter registration by party. Thirty of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans,” he said.
He went on to describe this shift as “a wavelet” of Republican enthusiasm and new registrations. “If I register to vote Republican, whether I’m switching or new, what am I going to do?” he posed rhetorically.
The Hill quoted an anonymous GOP pollster, who suggested there might be intentional motives at play. “I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it’s part of the strategy,” the pollster speculated. “They’re trying to drive down enthusiasm. Why are you going to vote for somebody if you think they’re going to lose? And they’re trying to drive down fundraising and donations.”
Prominent pollster Nate Silver recently highlighted that Trump has maintained a strong lead over Harris, regardless of what late polls indicate.
“It’s basically 55-45 Trump or 54-45, with a small chance of a tie,” Silver said, describing the Electoral College projection. He noted, “It’s been a little weird. I mean look, it’s gradually drifted to Trump over a fairly long period now. Two out of every three days Harris has lost ground in the forecast since roughly early October.”
Silver expressed skepticism about late polling results. “They all, every time a pollster [says], ‘Oh, every state is just +1, every single state’s a tie,’ No! You’re f***ing herding! You’re cheating,” he argued.
Herding, as defined by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, involves polling firms adjusting their results to align with other pollsters to avoid standing out, which can lead to collective biases that do not accurately reflect the views of the voting public.