Trump Ally Kari Lake Takes Healthy Lead In AZ Senate Race

A recent survey indicates that former Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, a prominent ally of Donald Trump, is on track to secure her party’s nomination over GOP contender and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.

The poll, conducted by the Phoenix-based firm Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) from July 22–23, shows Lake leading by double digits among likely Republican voters. “Lake is, though, sitting at the coveted 50 percent threshold if the election were held today, and Lamb only at 38 percent,” NPI CEO Mike Noble informed KTAR News 92.3 FM after the survey results were released on Monday morning.

Another GOP candidate, Elizabeth Rye, is polling at approximately 3 percent, with 9 percent of respondents undecided.

Lake’s lead diminishes when considering early voting, with her advantage over Lamb narrowing to just six percentage points among early voters. However, she holds a 56 percent to 45 percent lead among voters who have not yet cast their ballots.

The eventual Republican nominee will compete against U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) in November, the only Democrat in the race. The position is currently held by Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who ran for office as a Democrat before switching to Independent.

Sinema announced earlier this year that she wouldn’t seek reelection.

Lake, who ran for Arizona governor in 2022 with Trump’s endorsement, shows a slight lead over Gallego of two percent, according to an analysis by The Hill.

Initially, early polls favored the Democrat, but Lake has been persistently highlighting the immigration issue, blaming the surge of migrants at Arizona’s southern border on Gallego’s support for President Joe Biden’s policies.

This approach seems to resonate with some voters in a state with mixed political leanings, shifting from a Trump win in 2016 to a narrow Biden win in 2020.

Lake, who launched her campaign in February, initially trailed Gallego by about 5 percent in various polls. However, after Biden’s poorly received debate performance, her numbers improved, with the latest polling data showing Lake leading Gallego 51-49 percent.

“Incumbent first-term independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, initially elected as a Democrat in 2018 by a margin of 2.3% over then-Republican incumbent Sen. Martha McSally, left the Democratic Party in December 2022. She had initially filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent but announced in March 2024 that she would not seek a second term,” The Hill’s analysis noted.

“Democrats have won four consecutive statewide federal elections in Arizona and flipped the Governor’s office in 2022, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and hold a minimum majority in Arizona’s U.S. House delegation. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020,” the analysis continued.

Following her 2022 defeat to now-Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, Lake pursued several legal cases contesting the election’s integrity, but without success. In recent months, Lake has shifted her focus to addressing key issues such as Washington’s dysfunction, rampant inflation, and the need for more housing in the Southwest.

These issues appear to be resonating with many voters, positioning her as a candidate attuned to everyday concerns. Additionally, she has gained significant support within her party, securing endorsements from 23 of the 49 Republican Senators.

Her substantial backing was evident in April when Trump hosted a fundraising event for her at Mar-a-Lago, raising over $1 million and setting a new record for a non-incumbent at the club. Reports highlight that the strong financial and political support underscores her prominent position in the Republican primary set for Tuesday.