Trump Campaign Issues Emergency Memo Hours Before Election Day

A recently released campaign memo from the Trump-Vance team highlights several critical challenges for Democrats, specifically in terms of turnout among urban voters and women—two demographics typically crucial to a Democratic win.

“With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast,” reads the memo, authored by RNC Chief Data Consultant Tim Saler for senior Trump-Vance campaign officials. “As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own ‘data experts’ and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout.”

The document also cites former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina, who remarked in an MSNBC interview that “the early vote numbers are a little scary” for Democrats. According to the memo, Mr. Messina’s comments suggest Democrats are more worried than they’re willing to admit. Additionally, an NBC News report notes that Donald Trump currently leads by 16 points (56-40) among voters planning to cast ballots on Election Day. Meanwhile, Obama’s former chief campaign strategist and CNN political analyst, David Axelrod, points out that there are no guarantees voters will support Vice President Harris on Election Day.

The memo criticizes Democrats’ strategy, saying, “Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?”

The document references swing state data from Tom Bonier of TargetSmart, a Democratic data specialist, showing dismal numbers for Democrats in key battlegrounds. In Arizona, urban turnout has dropped by 385,285 ballots from the last election. Female turnout has fallen by 170,011 votes, while rural turnout has increased by 14,124 ballots.

Similar turnout decreases are observed in Michigan and Pennsylvania, with urban turnout down over 300,000 ballots in both states. Female turnout in Michigan is down more than 200,000 votes, and in Pennsylvania, it has plummeted by 450,802 votes.

The memo concludes with polling data from RealClearPolitics, showing Trump’s lead in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. Should these trends continue, Vice President Harris would need to win the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to secure the presidency, unless unexpected shifts occur.