Trump Gets Major Pre-Debate Boost from Poll Before Debate

Former President Donald Trump is heading into Tuesday's debate with Vice President Kamala Harris in a stronger polling position than earlier in the summer, after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed her.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday showed Trump leading Harris by a narrow 48-47 percent margin. While this result falls within the margin of error, it marks a significant improvement for Trump compared to previous months.

“Mr. Trump may have had a rough month following the president’s departure and amid the burst of excitement that Ms. Harris brought Democrats, but the poll suggests his support remains remarkably resilient,” noted the New York Times report.

Historically, the Times/Siena polling has been known to overestimate Democratic support. In the 2020 election, the same poll had Biden ahead by 11 points in Wisconsin—he won by only one percentage point. It also showed Biden leading by a point in Ohio, but Trump ended up winning the state by over 8 points. Given this past tendency, Trump’s actual lead over Harris may be greater than a single point, especially given Harris' challenges in popularity during her tenure.

Pollster Nate Silver further reinforced Trump’s advantage on Monday, showing him leading Harris with 64.4% to 35.3% in the national Electoral College estimate, strengthening his position as a front-runner.

Silver’s breakdown of swing states reveals the following:

• Pennsylvania: Trump 65% – Harris 35%
• Michigan: Trump 55% – Harris 45%
• Wisconsin: Trump 53% – Harris 47%
• Arizona: Trump 77% – Harris 23%
• North Carolina: Trump 76% – Harris 24%
• Georgia: Trump 69% – Harris 31%
• Nevada: Trump 61% – Harris 39%

Trump’s lead in the polls can be attributed to several factors, including his messaging on key issues like crime, border security, and inflation, which have resonated with a broad swath of voters. Trump has also retained strong loyalty among Republican voters, securing his base, while Harris has struggled to rally Democrats with the same intensity.

Political betting markets are beginning to reflect Trump’s momentum. On Polymarket, Trump’s odds stand at 52%, compared to Harris' 46%, signaling confidence in Trump’s position as the election approaches.

In a separate analysis, pollster Frank Luntz criticized Harris’ recent CNN interview, suggesting she made key mistakes. “I was not impressed... She gave child tax credits, a housing credit. She should have had something for day one, for the first hour, the first day,” Luntz explained, noting Harris lacked detail on concrete plans to present to voters.