Trump Holds Significant Lead Over Kamala in Recent Rasmussen Poll

The excitement surrounding Vice President Kamala Harris’ potential 2024 presidential run might need to be reconsidered.

On Thursday, Rasmussen revealed a poll indicating former President Donald Trump leads Harris by 7 points (50 percent to 43 percent) in a direct national matchup.

Following President Joe Biden’s sudden exit from the presidential race on Sunday, mainstream media has been fervently trying to drum up support for the underwhelming vice president.

These efforts, bolstered by the latest media frenzy, have occasionally caused concern among Republicans.

However, without becoming complacent, the new Rasmussen poll should reassure that the presidential race remains unchanged at its core.

Despite the media's glowing pro-Harris coverage and a series of polls suggesting a closer race, the Rasmussen poll stands out and warrants attention.

To understand its significance, two key points should be noted.

Firstly, Rasmussen has a track record of high accuracy, surpassing nearly all other pollsters.

Notably, among 25 pollsters from the late 2020 presidential election cycle, Rasmussen was ranked third in accuracy by Nate Silver of ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight.

Silver’s ranking gained further relevance in late June when AtlasIntel, the top pollster on the list, showed Trump leading Biden by 5.2 points nationally.

(Trafalgar Group, the second most accurate pollster from 2020, hasn’t released a poll since March, which also showed Trump leading Biden, 43.1 percent to 39.8 percent.)

In essence, within the past month, the most accurate pollster from 2020 showed Trump with a 5.2-point lead, and now the third most accurate pollster has Trump ahead by 7 points.

Secondly, Trump’s lead over Harris aligns with Rasmussen’s polling results over the last five months.

For example, in early April, Rasmussen showed Trump with an 8-point lead over Biden, up from a 6-point lead in February.

In May, Rasmussen indicated Trump had a substantial 10-point lead in a three-way race including Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Notably, Trump’s 7-point lead over Harris actually signifies a July boost for the former president.

On July 12, Rasmussen reported Trump had a 6-point lead over Biden in a head-to-head contest. A week later, on July 19, the poll showed Trump with a 3-point lead.

While individual polls might not hold significant weight on their own, patterns and historical data are highly informative.

In this instance, they indicate that the third most accurate pollster from the 2020 election cycle consistently shows Trump with a strong national lead, that the latest poll by the most accurate 2020 pollster echoes this result, and that Harris’ entry into the race has not altered the landscape.

Nonetheless, conservatives and Republicans should remain vigilant against complacency.

Kamala’s current momentum might be illusory, but similar sentiments were expressed about Trump by leftists and Democrats in 2016.