Trump Leads Harris By 3-Points Nationally In New Head-To-Head Poll
A recent national head-to-head survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by three percentage points.
"Trump leads with 49% to Harris' 46%, showing a slight improvement for Harris, who previously trailed Trump 45% to 49% in Rasmussen's poll last week. When third-party candidates were included, Trump still came out on top with 47% to Harris' 45%, followed by independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 4%, and other candidates at 1% or less," the New York Post reported.
"Rasmussen's findings differ from other recent national polls. The conservative-leaning firm has often diverged from other top pollsters, but it was among the closest to the final result in 2016. Harris currently holds a two-point lead over Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of a national five-way race. However, in a two-way race, her lead narrows to 1.5 percentage points," the Post added.
In the battleground states, polling results have become increasingly competitive, with different firms reporting varying outcomes. However, Trump still holds an edge over Harris.
According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is expected to secure 287 Electoral College votes compared to Harris' 251, with Trump taking most of the key swing states except Wisconsin.
Recent polling has favored Trump.
Trump has regained his lead after an initial surge in support for Vice President Harris following President Joe Biden's decision to end his reelection campaign in July.
Harris enjoyed a month of favorable coverage in mainstream media, which typically leans left, while Trump's coverage has been largely negative. According to Axios, previous polling by the Cook Political Report showed Harris leading Trump in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Similarly, a New York Times/Siena College poll showed Harris with a narrow lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
However, a more recent survey by Navigator Research, published on Tuesday, indicates that the race is nearly tied in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump leads Harris by one percentage point in Arizona (46% to 45%) and by two points in Pennsylvania (46% to 44%), with the other three states being deadlocked.
The Navigator survey aligns with the RealClearPolitics Polling average for battleground states, which also includes Nevada and Georgia.
Vice President Harris is performing better in battleground states than Biden did before he exited the race last month. Before Biden's departure on July 21, Trump held a lead of over 4 percent across the seven states in the RCP average, with his advantage growing as Biden's announcement neared.
On Monday, Chauncey McLean, president of Future Forward—a super PAC supporting Harris—suggested that public polling might be overstating her numbers.
Reuters reported that McLean, who rarely speaks publicly, expressed concerns during an event in Chicago associated with the Democratic National Convention.
"Our internal numbers are less optimistic than what you're seeing publicly," McLean said.
McLean explained that Harris gained significant support from young voters of color after Biden withdrew, which has improved Democratic prospects in Sunbelt states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—states previously considered less likely to go Democratic as Biden's campaign wound down.
"Harris has multiple paths with seven states in play," McLean noted. He added that voters are seeking more detailed policy positions from her, based on internal polling. He emphasized that voters are not interested in "white papers" or empty rhetoric, but rather concrete examples of how Harris differs from Biden and how she plans to improve their economic situation.