Trump Leads Harris Thanks to ‘Remarkably Resilient’ Support: Survey
Former President Donald Trump is maintaining his national lead despite a rise in Democratic enthusiasm following Vice President Kamala Harris's entry into the race.
According to the latest poll from The New York Times/Siena, released on Sunday, Trump is backed by 48% of likely voters, while Harris has the support of 47%. These figures are almost identical to a previous New York Times/Siena poll, conducted shortly after President Biden’s withdrawal from the race in late July, which also showed Trump leading with 48% to Harris’s 47%, as reported by Fox News.
This polling comes after weeks of heightened energy for the Democratic ticket following Kamala Harris’s replacement of Joe Biden. However, despite these shifts, The New York Times remarked that Trump’s support remains “remarkably resilient” amid the changing political landscape.
The survey also indicates that Harris has yet to fully persuade voters regarding her vision for the country, with 28% of respondents expressing the need for more information before committing their support to her. By contrast, only 9% of respondents shared similar reservations about Trump.
"I’m not sure what Kamala’s plans are," said Dawn Conley, a 48-year-old small-business owner from Knoxville, Tennessee, who leans towards Trump, in an interview with the Times.
Though Harris has made some strides among key demographic groups within the Democratic base after Biden’s exit, she is still underperforming with traditionally strong Democratic groups, such as women and Latino voters.
Harris also faces a challenge regarding voters' desire for change. The poll found that 60% of respondents prefer a significant shift from Biden's policies, yet only 25% believe Harris would deliver that change, while 53% think Trump would provide that shift.
Trump is also gaining traction with voter groups that typically lean Democratic. A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows that Trump now leads Harris by three points among independents in a multi-candidate race, with 49% compared to Harris’s 46%.
This represents a considerable improvement since August when Harris led Trump by 11 points, 48% to 37%. The same survey found that Trump has gained around 14 points with independents and 19 points with Latino voters.
In Wisconsin, a key battleground state for the upcoming election, a new poll from Emerson College and The Hill has revealed some surprising results for Democrats. Trump holds 50% of the vote compared to Harris's 49%. Although the 1% difference might seem small, Democrats are concerned about the trend.
Before the Democratic National Convention (DNC), Harris was leading Trump by 1% in Wisconsin, marking a 2% swing in Trump’s favor. In such a closely contested state, even a small shift can have major consequences.
Emerson College’s polling track record is adding to the concern. In 2020, their final poll projected Biden leading by 8%, but the actual results were much closer.
A series of recent polls suggests that the momentum Harris gained after President Biden dropped his re-election bid is now waning.
A recent poll by the Napolitan Institute shows Trump reclaiming his lead, similar to his position before Democrats shifted their support to Harris.
“In the race for the White House, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. When leaners are included, the Napolitan News survey of 3,000 Likely Voters shows Trump ahead 49% to 47%. Just a week ago, the two candidates were tied at 49% among Likely Voters,” the poll report highlighted.
“These figures suggest that Harris’s initial boost has faded. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters have solidified their opinions of Donald Trump. At this stage, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown to many voters, meaning that events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have an unusually strong impact on the outcome.”