Trump Overtakes Harris in 7-Point Swing Nationally: Poll

Former President Donald Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris in a recent national poll after a notable seven-point shift in his favor.

The survey, conducted by ActiVote from October 3 to October 8, now places Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, ahead of Harris, the Democratic contender, by 1.2 percent. Trump secured 50.6 percent of the vote compared to Harris’s 49.4 percent.

This result marks a significant turnaround for Trump, who was trailing Harris by 5.4 points in the previous ActiVote poll conducted between September 11 and September 17. At that time, Harris led with 52.7 percent to Trump’s 47.3 percent. Trump's support has increased by 6.6 points over just three weeks.

Both surveys included 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, according to Newsweek.

This latest poll is the first time Trump has led in a national survey since September 22, when a Quinnipiac University poll showed him with a 1-point advantage at 48 percent, compared to Harris’s 47 percent, when factoring in third-party candidates. In a direct matchup, the poll reflected a tie, with both candidates at 48 percent. That survey included 1,728 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

Since the September 22 poll, other surveys have indicated Harris leading Trump by as much as 7 points.

In addition, a new poll indicates Trump is leading Harris in five of the seven key swing states, which are expected to play a crucial role in the election outcome.

The AtlasIntel poll of likely voters in these battleground states shows Trump ahead in Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1) and Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2).

Trump also holds a “narrow” lead in the contested states of Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49), and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2), as per AtlasIntel’s findings. However, Harris is ahead in Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7) and North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1).

Additionally, AtlasIntel was ranked as the most reliable polling organization by 538 voters during the 2020 presidential election. Should Trump secure victory in the five battleground states where he currently leads, with Harris holding 248 Electoral College votes, Trump would win the 2024 election with 290 Electoral College votes.

The AtlasIntel poll was conducted between September 20 and 25, with a margin of error ranging from two to three percentage points.

Commenting on the poll results, a Trump spokesperson told Newsweek: “Americans are sick and tired of Kamala Harris and her failed policies that have led to skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime that terrorizes communities. She is weak, failed, and dangerously liberal, and the American people know a fraud when they see one.”

According to AtlasIntel's polling, Trump would win in two of Harris’s critical "blue wall" battleground states.

If there are no surprising results elsewhere, Harris would only need to win the three blue wall swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to secure the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory.

In that scenario, Harris would also need to win Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which polls suggest she is likely to achieve.

In 2020, Joe Biden successfully flipped Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which Trump had won in 2016. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not allocate Electoral College votes using a winner-take-all system.

Looking ahead to November, Trump would have enough Electoral College votes to be declared the winner if he triumphs in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

Moreover, Trump could win by securing victories in the four Sun Belt swing states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. Alternatively, he could claim victory by flipping just one of Wisconsin or Michigan.

Additional polling data from traditionally reliable firms shows Trump on track for a potential “landslide” electoral victory over Harris.

According to data from Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage, Trump is in a strong position for a landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election. Recent polls show Trump with a significant lead in key battleground states, indicating a solid path to victory come November.