Trump Sweeps Battlegrounds In New Polls with 43 Electoral Votes On The Line
New polling from swing states with 43 electoral votes at stake shows momentum building for Donald Trump, positioning him favorably in the 2024 race. According to Quinnipiac and Emerson surveys released Tuesday, the former president leads Vice President Kamala Harris in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, while they are tied in Pennsylvania.
If these numbers hold, Trump would secure 262 electoral votes, leaving Harris with a narrow path to victory that would rely heavily on winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The New York Post highlighted this data in its latest analysis of the electoral map.
In North Carolina, a Quinnipiac poll reveals Trump leading Harris 49% to 47%, with his support largely coming from men and white voters without college degrees. The GOP candidate commands 59% and 66% support from these groups, respectively. Harris, on the other hand, leads among women, 56% to 40%, though Trump has gained ground with white women.
Harris's most solid backing comes from Black voters, where she leads 90% to 2%, although other surveys have indicated Trump gaining some support among Black men. In Emerson’s poll of North Carolina, Trump leads 50% to 49% among 850 likely voters surveyed, with 9% of Harris supporters disapproving of the Biden administration's performance. This result is consistent with other surveys from the state, including a Washington Post poll showing Trump ahead by two points.
In Georgia, Quinnipiac’s poll suggests Trump is poised to reverse his narrow 2020 defeat. The former president leads Harris 50% to 44%, garnering strong support from white voters (71%) and those without college degrees (78%). Notably, both Trump and Harris have strong bases, with over 90% of their supporters unlikely to change their minds.
In Arizona, Emerson’s poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 47%, slightly above his 2.1% average lead in the RealClearPolitics polling.
However, Trump’s momentum doesn’t seem to be lifting all GOP candidates. In North Carolina, Republican gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson trails Democrat Josh Stein in polls, particularly after reports emerged about Robinson’s controversial past comments. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego holds a significant lead over Republican challenger Kari Lake.
In Pennsylvania, however, Republican Dave McCormick is gaining ground against incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, giving the GOP hope of retaking control of the Senate.
The polling data shows that while Trump is leading in key swing states, the election remains closely contested. Meanwhile, the sole vice presidential debate between Republican Sen. J.D. Vance and Democrat Gov. Tim Walz took place Tuesday night in New York, addressing topics like immigration, climate change, and abortion.
During the debate, Elon Musk weighed in on Trump’s stance on abortion via his social media platform, X. Musk defended Trump, clarifying his position on the issue: “Could not be more clear that @realDonaldTrump WILL veto a national abortion ban. He has said it before many times, but this simple statement makes his position absolutely obvious and unequivocal,” Musk posted.
The polling shifts and debate performances signal an intense final stretch leading into election day.