Trump Takes Edge In Swing State Crucial To Democrats

The Wall Street Journal has some sobering news for Democrats hoping to retain control of the White House.

A new poll released on Friday revealed that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are running neck and neck in national polling. However, in critical swing states, including the so-called “blue wall,” the situation is dire for Democrats.

One notable Sun Belt stronghold for Democrats, Nevada, is also slipping from their grasp, according to the poll.

It showed Trump with a 47 percent to 42 percent lead, while the other six swing states are effectively tied.

Harris holds a slight advantage of one or two points in states like Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, while Trump has a one-point lead in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

“The poll’s margin of error for each state was plus or minus 5 percentage points. In each of the swing states, 600 registered voters were surveyed between Sept. 28 and Oct. 8, and the poll included third-party candidates in states where they will be on the ballot,” Politico reported.

“Across all the swing-state voters surveyed, Trump leads Harris 46 percent to 45 percent. Ninety-three percent of both Democrats and Republicans polled said they would vote for their party’s nominee. And independent voters were split evenly between the two, with 40 percent for Harris and 39 percent for Trump, further emphasizing the closeness of the race and its partisan divide,” it added.

Trump has taken the lead in two of the three key “Blue Wall” states that Harris must win to secure victory in the upcoming presidential election.

A Quinnipiac University poll found Trump leading in Michigan by 50 to 47 percent and in Wisconsin by 48 to 46 percent. In Pennsylvania, Harris holds a slim lead, 49 to 46 percent.

Last month, Harris led in Michigan, 50 to 45 percent, and in Wisconsin, 48 to 47 percent. She had also been ahead in Pennsylvania with 51 to 45 percent, but Trump has since narrowed the gap.

According to the Real Clear Politics average, which compiles surveys conducted as recently as last month, Trump holds a slight lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Harris maintains a narrow advantage in Wisconsin.

Harris polls strongest on issues like abortion policy, while Trump performs better on topics like immigration, the economy, and the Middle East conflict, according to voters in the Blue Wall states.

Polling of likely voters was conducted by Quinnipiac from October 3rd to the 7th.

The margin of error for the sample was +/- 2.6 percentage points for 1,412 Pennsylvania voters, +/- 3.1 percentage points for 1,007 Michigan voters, and +/- 3.0 percentage points for 1,073 Wisconsin voters.

These polls indicate that Trump is performing much better against Harris than he did against Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016.

Clinton had a 3.4% lead in Michigan, according to the Real Clear Politics average, but Trump ultimately won the state by a slim margin of 0.3%.

In Wisconsin, Clinton led by 6.5% in the polls, but Trump still managed to win by 0.7%.

Even in Pennsylvania, where Clinton’s lead was a narrower 1.9%, Trump pulled off a victory with a 0.7% margin.

The Real Clear Politics averages also show that outside of the Blue Wall, Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona—though these races are tight—while Harris holds an advantage in Nevada.