Trump Tops Harris In Nate Silver’s Model Weeks Out From Election

Former President Donald Trump has edged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in pollster Nate Silver’s prediction model, just weeks before the upcoming Election Day.

While the race remains tight, Trump now leads Harris by slightly more than half a percentage point—50.2 percent to Harris’s 49.5 percent—according to an updated model released Thursday afternoon.

“However nominal, it’s Trump’s first lead in our model since Sept. 19,” Silver posted on his Silver Bulletin site.

The political analyst noted that just one day earlier, Harris was leading Trump by about a point, with 50.3 percent to 49.4 percent.

Trump’s surge was driven by “some good polls” entering the database on Thursday, Silver explained. These included a 2-point lead in a Fox News poll and another lead in a Georgia survey, as reported by The Hill.

Harris took the lead in Silver’s polling aggregation model nearly a month ago. Though neither candidate saw a significant shift following the September 10 presidential debate, Harris was performing well in five swing states, giving her a boost.

Still, Silver warned in September that the situation could shift before Election Day. He reiterated the same point in his Thursday update.

“There’s a good chance that the lead will continue to shift back and forth, akin to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth quarter,” Silver wrote.

Harris had gained strong momentum a few months back. After securing President Biden’s endorsement when he exited the race, she quickly built a lead over Trump both nationally and in key swing states as the Democratic nominee following the party’s convention.

However, recent polls show that her momentum has plateaued, with Trump making gains nationally and in battleground states as Election Day draws near.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index currently shows Harris with a 2.7 percentage point lead over Trump, standing at 49.8 percent support compared to Trump’s 47.1 percent.

“I’ve never seen an election where the forecast stayed so close to 50/50, and I probably never will again,” Silver wrote last week, suggesting the race will remain a toss-up until Election Day on Nov. 5.

Earlier this month, the Sentinel Action Fund, a conservative SuperPAC, launched an ad underscoring how Harris has “always been a radical,” despite her recent efforts to rebrand herself as a moderate.

The digital ad is aimed at more than one million low-propensity voters across Pennsylvania, reminding voters that, despite Harris’s current portrayal, she once claimed that her “values” haven’t changed.

The ad concludes with the line: “Kamala Harris: once a radical, always a radical.”

Jessica Anderson, president of the Sentinel Action Fund, criticized Harris and Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) for hiding their radical stances from voters.

“Kamala Harris and Bob Casey are misleading Pennsylvania voters about their extreme positions on everything from fracking to the border crisis, and this ad offers just a small snapshot of the many lies they’ve told,” Anderson stated.

“Looking at their records, Kamala Harris and Bob Casey have supported reckless federal spending that’s led to historic inflation and unaffordable home prices in Pennsylvania,” Anderson continued. “They’ve contributed to the nation’s border crisis, allowing Mexican drug cartels to bring deadly fentanyl into our communities, affecting over 4,000 Pennsylvanians last year alone.”

Anderson added, “If re-elected, Kamala Harris and Bob Casey will continue to push these failed policies, harming Pennsylvanians by attacking the industries that help families thrive.”

“Voters won’t be fooled by empty promises of changing policies. They’ll make their voices heard at the ballot box in this crucial battleground state,” Anderson concluded. “Not only is Pennsylvania key to ensuring President Trump’s return to the White House, but it’s also vital to securing strong Republican partners, like Dave McCormick, in the Senate.”