Trump’s Election Chances See Sudden Surge, Reach Highest in Months

A major forecast from a well-known prediction market has revealed that former President Donald Trump is now ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris just hit an all-time high in Pennsylvania. Odds he wins are ahead by 12%,” Polymarket posted on X.

The post included a graphic showing Trump at 56 percent support in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania, compared to 44 percent for Harris.

According to Polymarket, Trump’s overall odds stand at 53.6 percent, while Harris holds 45.8 percent. When rounded to 54 percent, this marks the first time since August 5 that Trump has reached this level.

A predictions chart revealed that on July 16, just three days after the first assassination attempt on Trump, his odds of winning were at 72 percent.

Following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, with Harris stepping in as his replacement, the odds began to shift. Throughout August and into early October, Trump and Harris frequently swapped positions in Polymarket’s projections, often separated by just one or two percentage points.

In its latest figures, Polymarket shows Trump leading in Arizona with 67 percent to Harris’s 33 percent, and in Georgia, where Trump holds 64 percent compared to Harris’s 36 percent.

However, Harris still leads in three key swing states. According to the latest data, she is ahead of Trump in Wisconsin (52 percent to 48 percent), Nevada (53 percent to 47 percent), and Michigan (53 percent to 47 percent).

Elon Musk recently remarked on X that prediction markets are “[m]ore accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”

Writer Rex Umberleigh also weighed in on X, suggesting that Harris is struggling due to her own missteps.

“[T]he honeymoon is over. As she hits various outlets and interviews, it will only get worse,” he commented.