Trump’s Electoral Lead Extending In Reputable Polling Model

A new electoral college model released Monday by a well-known pollster brings promising news for former President Donald Trump as he prepares for his debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday evening.

Nate Silver’s forecast from last week gave Trump his best odds since late July, with a 60.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris was at 39.7%. Since then, Trump’s chances have increased, with the new projection giving him a 64.4% likelihood of securing the Electoral College, compared to Harris’ 35.3%. Harris’ chances of winning the popular vote have also dropped slightly, from 58% to 56%. The model now anticipates Harris will receive 256 electoral votes, while Trump is projected to win 282.

Furthermore, the model reveals that Republicans have gained between 0.3 and 1.2 points across several key swing states over the past week. As a result, Trump is now predicted to win all seven battleground states, which previously showed a tight race between Harris and Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to a Newsweek report.

Political experts believe that the upcoming debate, hosted by ABC, could be a pivotal moment for Harris, who has led the polls since becoming the candidate. This follows the first debate between Trump and Biden, which ultimately led the 81-year-old president to end his re-election bid.

“This is a critical moment for both candidates,” remarked Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at Fresno State, in an interview with KSEE. “Harris needs to come across strongly, while Trump’s challenge is to prevent her from doing just that.”

However, a poll published by ABC News just 24 hours before the debate highlights Harris’ growing popularity among "likely voters," though the data is from late August, nearly two weeks prior.

The article curiously claims that “closer inspection suggests a shift toward Harris among several groups when comparing all adults with probable voters—notably, those under 40, younger women in particular, and Black people.” The report calls the polling between Harris and Trump “virtually identical.”

“This analysis, conducted for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, shows Harris’ support rising from 54 percent of all adults under 40 to 64 percent of likely voters in this group,” ABC stated. “Meanwhile, Trump’s support falls from 42 percent of adults in this age range to 33 percent of likely voters.”

Oddly, ABC’s report left out crucial poll details such as dates, sample size, and margin of error.

The article sparked criticism for its timing, with some speculating that the network aimed to boost Harris’ standing before the debate.

Washington Examiner correspondent Byron York observed that with the shorter election season, information from late August would be outdated by mid-September.

“Posted this morning, this seems to be based on an ABC poll conducted August 23-27,” York posted on social media platform X. “Why didn’t ABC conduct a fresh poll for its own debate?”

Rusty Weiss, a Daily Caller correspondent, added on X, “This poll was done last month. And newer polls, even from left-leaning sources, show Trump back in the lead. Interesting how that detail didn’t make the report.”

Silver’s latest update on Monday indicated that Trump leads Harris with a commanding 64.4% to 35.3% margin in the national forecast.