Trump's Legacy Endures: New Poll Highlights Top 2028 Contenders
Although it’s still early, a recent poll suggests that Donald Trump’s influence on American politics will persist well beyond his presidency.
Granted, the Biden administration is technically still ongoing — even if Joe Biden himself seems to have embraced the idea of “wilderness years” a bit prematurely — but speculation about the 2028 race has already begun, fueled by new polling data.
Unsurprisingly, voters from both parties appear to favor a rematch-like scenario.
The Echelon Insights survey, released Monday, reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, the newly elected vice president, are the clear frontrunners for their respective parties if the primaries were held today.
Conducted between Nov. 14 and 18, the poll surveyed 1,010 likely voters for the 2028 election, with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.
On the Republican side, Trump’s vice presidential pick, J.D. Vance, emerged as the clear favorite, securing 37% of Republican support. Former Trump primary challenger and DOGE commission co-head Vivek Ramaswamy tied for second place with 9%, alongside former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis followed with 8%, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Trump’s former Secretary of State nominee, both garnered 5%. Notably, 18% of respondents were undecided.
For Democrats, Kamala Harris led decisively with 41%. California Gov. Gavin Newsom came in second with 8%, followed by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7%. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, tied at 6%. New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was next with 4%, while other contenders fell below the 5% threshold.
These results reflect two key trends. First, J.D. Vance’s rise: Once dismissed as “weird” and a potential liability, the Ohio senator became a breakout figure in the 2024 campaign. He was simultaneously charismatic, intellectually sharp, and relatable — a direct rebuttal to Democratic attempts to paint him as out of touch.
Vance’s transformation into a relatable yet policy-savvy leader solidified his role as the face of “Trumpism without Trump.” His commanding lead over other Republican figures — including DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (2%) — underscores his successful alignment with the party’s evolving priorities.
Second, the Democratic lineup continues to evoke Charles Dickens’ An Election Day Carol, haunted by the “Ghost of Don’t You Guys Ever Learn.” Harris’ strong showing reflects ongoing support for her within the party, despite criticism of her campaign and governing style. Democrats appear committed to the narrative that external factors, not her own limitations, led to past defeats.
The rest of the Democratic field underscores this dynamic. While Shapiro represents a potential pivot, most other candidates are unelectable progressives or entrenched members of the Biden-Harris administration. That even Ocasio-Cortez made the list ahead of more moderate figures like Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (2%) speaks volumes.
In short, while the GOP has embraced a dynamic evolution under Trump’s influence, the Democrats seem stuck in a feedback loop, convinced their policies and leaders are not the issue — the voters simply got it wrong. If anything proves Trump’s enduring impact on American politics, it’s this: both parties are now defined by the seismic shift he triggered.