Who Wins In November? Historian Who Has Predicted 9/10 Elections Weighs In

n a possible 2024 showdown with former President Donald Trump, the “Keys to the White House” appear to be favoring Vice President Kamala Harris. However, no firm prediction has been made yet for the 2024 election.

Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has been nearly flawless in his predictions since 1984, designed a system for predicting presidential outcomes, according to Arizona Central.

Lichtman’s method, the “Keys to the White House,” involves 13 true-or-false questions, which he says can reliably predict the candidate who will emerge victorious in the fall election.

Each question pertains to one of the two candidates; if the response is “true,” the candidate earns a “key.” If it’s “false,” the opposing candidate gains the point. To win, a candidate must secure six or more keys.

This year, Lichtman suggests that Kamala Harris is in the lead.

The 13 “keys” include factors such as party mandate, contest, incumbency, third-party involvement, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy changes, social unrest, scandals, foreign/military failures, foreign/military successes, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.

The questions include whether:

– The White House party gained seats in the House during midterms.

– The current president is seeking reelection.

– The White House party is free from a primary challenge.

– A third-party contender is present.

– The short-term economy is strong.

– The long-term economic growth matches or surpasses the previous two terms.

– The White House party enacted significant policy changes.

– The term experienced widespread social unrest.

– The White House remains scandal-free.

– The incumbent party possesses charisma.

– The challenger lacks charisma.

– The White House party had any significant foreign policy failures.

– The White House achieved success in foreign policy.

Lichtman claims Harris has eight keys in her favor, with Trump holding three. The final two keys—those related to foreign policy—are considered too close to call.

One of the keys in Harris's favor is the short-term economic strength. Lichtman believes that a robust short-term economy will likely boost Harris's appeal to voters.

Despite this, Trump’s polling numbers have shown positive trends.

Trump has gained ground against Harris, seeing an increase of about 14 points among independent voters and 19 points with Latino voters.

Recent polling from NPR/PBS News/Marist shows Trump overtaking Harris by three points among independents in a multi-candidate race, with Trump at 49% and Harris at 46%. This is a notable rise since August when Harris led Trump by 11 points, 48% to 37%.

In between the August and September polls, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exited the race and endorsed Trump, adding complexity to the contest. Meanwhile, Harris's post-nomination "honeymoon" period has started to diminish.

In August, Trump held a 15-point lead over Harris among Latino voters, but now the gap has narrowed, with Trump at 51% and Harris at 47%.

“When Trump and Harris face off in Philadelphia, the stakes couldn’t be higher because the race is so tight,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.

“Most issues important to voters are only separated by single digits. However, voters who prioritize honesty heavily favor Harris, while those seeking strong leadership align more with Trump. Will this hold after the debate on Wednesday?”

Nearly 70% of Americans indicated they would watch the debate, while 30% of registered voters said it could influence their decision. Nevertheless, 69% of those polled felt it probably wouldn’t change their vote.

In another positive development for Trump, he has cut Harris’s national lead by two points, with Harris still barely ahead.

In the most recent survey of registered voters, Harris narrowly edged out Trump in a multi-candidate contest, 49% to 48%. Back in August, Harris led 48% to 45%.

Interestingly, Trump had outpaced President Biden in July, defeating him 43% to 42% among registered voters.

However, in September, Harris’s advantage over Trump among likely voters expanded to 51% to 48%.

The September survey also showed Harris leading Trump by 15 points among women and by 12 points among men.

In a multi-candidate race, Harris secured 74% of the Black vote, while Trump managed 24%.

Harris also earned a slightly better favorability rating, with 47% viewing her positively and 46% unfavorably. In comparison, Trump received 45% favorability with 50% unfavorable ratings.

When asked about which candidate is more likely to bring about change, 52% of respondents selected Harris, compared to 47% who favored Trump. Similarly, 52% said Harris was more concerned about the average American than Trump.

On ideology, 47% of respondents felt Harris was too liberal, 41% said her views were "about right," and 9% thought she was too conservative. As for Trump, 10% considered him too liberal, 43% said he was too conservative, and 43% believed he was "about right."